National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions: 1 2
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FGUS73 KABR 291531
ESFABR
SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-MNC011-155-291500-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
930 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM JANUARY 31 2010 - MAY 1 2010

THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE
GAGES DURING THE VALID PERIOD.

                                         APPROXIMATE CHANCE OF
                 FLOOD LEVELS (FT)       REACHING FLOOD LEVELS
LOCATION         MINOR MODRT MAJOR       MINOR  MODRT  MAJOR
--------         ----- ----- -----       -----  -----  -----
ELM RIVER
 WESTPORT SD     14.0  16.0  19.0        38%    20%    13%

JAMES RIVER
 COLUMBIA SD     13.0  16.0  18.0       >98%    86%    77%
 STRATFORD SD    14.0  17.0  18.5       >98%    89%    72%
 ASHTON SD       13.0  14.0  16.0        92%    89%    86%
 REDFIELD SD     20.0  22.0  25.0        72%    61%    53%

TURTLE CREEK
 REDFIELD SD      7.0  10.0  15.0        96%    56%    16%

BIG SIOUX RIVER
 WATERTOWN SD 7NW10.0  11.0  12.0        61%     19%    3%
 WATERTOWN SD 3NE 8.0  10.0  12.0       >98%     77%   16%
 BROADWAY AT WT  11.0  14.0  16.0        97%     10%    0%
 CASTLEWOOD SD   11.0  12.0  16.0        89%     61%    0%

GRAND RIVER
 LITTLE EAGLE SD 15.0  17.0  21.0        74%     53%   20%

MOREAU RIVER
 WHITEHORSE SD   21.0  23.0  25.0         7%      4%    2%

BAD RIVER
 FT. PIERRE      21.0  25.0  27.0        43%     29%    2%

LITTLE MINNESOTA
 PEEVER SD 5NE   17.0  22.0  24.0        95%      6%    1%


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE ELM RIVER NEAR WESTPORT HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 14 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 13.0 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

LOCATION         FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------      ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
ELM R
 WESTPORT SD 1N  14.0   9.0  9.4 10.9 11.5 13.0 13.9 14.6 15.8 19.5

JAMES R
COLUMBIA SD 1S  13.0   15.2 17.3 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.3
STRATFORD SD    14.0   16.9 17.9 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4
ASHTON SD       13.0   13.3 16.9 17.6 18.5 20.3 21.3 23.8 25.1 28.2
REDFIELD SD 3N  20.0   15.8 18.6 20.2 22.3 25.6 27.5 29.9 31.1 33.3

TURTLE CR
 REDFIELD SD     7.0    7.9  8.4  9.2  9.7 10.6 12.2 13.7 14.5 16.0

BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN SD7NW 10.0    9.0  9.4  9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2
WATERTOWN SD3NW  8.0    9.4  9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.3
BROADWAY AT WT  11.0   11.9 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.0
CASTLEWOOD SD   11.0   10.8 11.4 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.4

GRAND R
 LITTLE EAGLE 1S 15.0  13.7 14.2 15.5 16.2 17.2 17.7 18.7 21.0 23.0

MOREAU R
 WHITEHORSE 2SE  21.0   9.3  9.8  9.9 10.2 10.8 11.3 13.4 15.8 18.6

BAD RIVER
 FT PIERRE 2SW   21.0  12.8 16.0 16.3 17.5 19.4 21.5 24.9 29.0 30.9

LITTLE MINNESOTA R
 PVRS2 8NNE      17.0  17.4 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.3

CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS:
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. FROM
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN TO THE MISSOURI RIVER SNOW DEPTHS WERE GENERALLY
10 TO 20 INCHES. IN NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 INCHES. THERE WERE ISOLATED
AREAS IN EXCESS OF 20 INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW PACK WAS GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES.

CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS:
SOIL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE WINTER BEFORE FREEZE-UP WAS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO FALL PRECIPITATION THAT WAS 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MOISTURE TOTALED 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 8 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL IN EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. FROST DEPTHS IN THE
SOIL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

CURRENT ICE CONDITIONS:
FOLLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE FALL...RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS WERE RUNNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WINTER.
WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT SET IN DURING DECEMBER...
THICK AND SOLID ICE FORMED ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. ICE JAMS
WILL BE A VERY HIGH CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WINTER AND
INTO EARLY SPRING.

THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
REPRESENT NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE
STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER...AND SOIL MOISTURE...AND THE 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FUTURE WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITIES
OF FLOODING.

BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).

30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE LATEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF
THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR...AND MORE FREQUENTLY LEADING UP TO THE
NORMAL SNOWMELT SEASON. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE SITES WILL
BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 19TH.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.

$$

PARKIN
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
