RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions: 1
2
000
FGUS73 KABR 261000
ESFABR
SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-MNC011-155-260000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
500 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM OCTOBER 26 2009 - JANUARY 24 2010
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT THE
GAGES DURING THE VALID PERIOD.
APPROXIMATE CHANCE (%)
OF REACHING FLOOD LEVEL
LOCATION FS (FT) MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
----------------------------------------------------------
ELM RIVER
WESTPORT SD 14.0 <10% <10% <10%
JAMES RIVER
COLUMBIA SD 13.0 <10% <10% <10%
STRATFORD SD 14.0 100% 100% <10%
ASHTON SD 13.0 <10% <10% <10%
REDFIELD SD 20.0 <10% <10% <10%
TURTLE CREEK
REDFIELD SD 7.0 <10% <10% <10%
BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN SD 7NW 10.0 <10% <10% <10%
WATERTOWN SD 3NE 8.0 <10% NA NA
BROADWAY AT WT 11.0 <10% NA NA
CASTLEWOOD SD 11.0 <10% <10% <10%
GRAND RIVER
LITTLE EAGLE SD 15.0 <10% <10% <10%
MOREAU RIVER
WHITEHORSE SD 21.0 <10% <10% <10%
BAD RIVER
FT. PIERRE 21.0 <10% <10% <10%
LITTLE MINNESOTA
PEEVER SD 5NE 18.0 <10% <10% <10%
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE JAMES RIVER NEAR COLUMBIA HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 11.0 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ELM R
WESTPORT SD 1N 14.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.6
JAMES R
COLUMBIA SD 1S 13.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.7
STRATFORD SD 14.0 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2
ASHTON SD 13.0 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8
REDFIELD SD 3N 20.0 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8
TURTLE CR
REDFIELD SD 7.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.1 5.2
BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN SD7NW 10.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.7 7.3
WATERTOWN SD3NW 8.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.1 7.7
BROADWAY AT WT 11.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.5 10.2
CASTLEWOOD SD 11.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.2 7.5 8.8
GRAND R
LITTLE EAGLE 1S 15.0 3.5 3.5 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.2 7.0 7.2 8.6
MOREAU R
WHITEHORSE 2SE 21.0 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.8 8.0
BAD RIVER
FT PIERRE 2SW 21.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.7 5.8
LITTLE MINNESOTA R
PVRS2 8NNE 18.0 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.6 13.1 14.3
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
REPRESENT NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE
STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER...AND SOIL MOISTURE...AND THE 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FUTURE WILL INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITIES OF FLOODING.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE LASTEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE 3
MONTH PERIOD OF NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF
THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE
SITES WILL BE ISSUED AT THE END OF NOVEMBER.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.
$$
PARKIN
