National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS73 KAPX 302121
ESFAPX
MIC011-033-055-135-165-012121-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR RIVER BASINS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE FIVE DAY RIVER
FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR
ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

...90 DAY HIGH FLOW FORECAST...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
          VALID FEBRUARY 1, 2010 - MAY 2, 2010

LOCATION         FS     90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        ----    ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BOARDMAN RIVER
 MAYFIELD        7.0    4.0  4.1  4.2  4.3  4.4  4.5  4.6  4.7  5.2
MANISTEE RIVER
 SHERMAN        15.0   13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.1
AU SABLE RIVER
 RED OAK         7.0    4.3  4.4  4.7  5.0  5.3  5.5  5.7  6.0  6.4
RIFLE RIVER
 STERLING        6.0    4.3  4.7  5.0  5.3  5.7  6.3  6.6  7.9  8.4
PINE RIVER
 RUDYARD        17.0    6.5  7.2  7.5  8.1  9.1 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.7

...90 DAY LOW FLOW FORECAST...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 10 THROUGH 90 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

      CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
          VALID FEBRUARY 1, 2010 - MAY 2, 2010

LOCATION         FS     10%  20%  30%  40%  50%  60%  70%  80%  90%
--------        ----    ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BOARDMAN RIVER
 MAYFIELD        7.0    3.0  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.1  3.1  3.1
MANISTEE RIVER
 SHERMAN        15.0   11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5
AU SABLE RIVER
 RED OAK         7.0    2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.6  2.7  2.7  2.7  2.8
RIFLE RIVER
 STERLING        6.0    1.5  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.5  1.6  1.6  1.6
PINE RIVER
 RUDYARD        17.0    1.9  1.9  1.9  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0  2.0

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION.  BY PROVIDING A COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=APX FOR
MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES.

$$

JPB
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
