Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 200849
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front (presently crossing Minnesota) will move
into northern Michigan toward dawn Thursday, then slow and stall.
The front will support an increasing chance for showers and a few
thunderstorms, especially late tonight. Its presence will also tend
to keep our humidity levels rather high.

Light southeast breezes will occur today. Northeast lower Michigan
will still see a southerly breeze Thursday, with light and variable
winds in northwest lower.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (620).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 2400, then chance of showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.18 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (360).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.18 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400. Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (400).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.18 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (540).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.23 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Chance of showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 5 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (510).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-202200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter...except 28 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (540).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers until 2400. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. chance of showers after 2400.
                    Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.13 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (700).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.16 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
449 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy dense fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (590).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400. Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (720).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.21 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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