Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 211934
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...Chances for showers and storms at times over the weekend...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will depart northern Michigan this
evening. A complex of showers and storms developing over southern
WI this evening is expected to skirt just to our south as it
crosses into southern Lower MI overnight. Saturday will feature
higher humidity levels and a small chance of showers and storms,
but many areas will likely remain rain-free. Somewhat higher
chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday as a disturbance
moves through aloft with some storms also possible Sunday
afternoon. Winds will remain rather light through the weekend,
generally easterly on Saturday and veering northwest by late
Sunday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog after
                    0200. Chance of showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph shifting to the southeast
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.12 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. Chance of showers. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0800 until 1100.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.22 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1900
                    until 2000.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.14 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 0800, then showers likely.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........67-72 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the west around
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.62 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0500.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.21 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1100. chance of showers.
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1400.
                    Patchy fog after 1000 until 1600.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.32 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2000, then chance of showers
                    after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 1400, then showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.59 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2300. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0200. Patchy fog after
                    0400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.21 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. patchy fog after 1000 until 1300. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms until 1200. showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (130).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.26 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 1900
                    until 2000.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (330).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.39 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-220830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2400, then showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.34 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1300. Chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
                    showers likely. slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (130).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.34 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2000. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1900 until 2000, then chance of showers
                    after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (510).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.38 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 0200. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 0500.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.15 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. patchy fog after 1000 until 1500. Showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (160).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.33 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 2000. chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1900 until 2000, then chance of showers
                    after 0200.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers until 1400, then showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.42 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MK



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