Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 271144
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
644 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery indicates shortwave trough
over the Northern Plains states and a upper level trough over
southern Ontario Canada. Latest infrared satellite imagery shows
stratocumulus deck over northern Minnesota...northeast North
Dakota and Lake Superior in association with upper level trough.

Main forecast concerns today and tonight are clouds across much of
the forecast area and possible showers across the northern parts of
the forecast area. The 27.00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in
tracking shortwave trough over the Northern Plains into northern
Wisconsin and digging upper level trough over the Great Lakes
Region today into tonight. The 27.00z GFS/NAM are in decent
agreement in advecting 925 and 850mb moisture in association with
the upper level trough today. This will result in increasing
clouds across much of the forecast area today. Both of the models
suggest steep low level lapse rates per Bufkit soundings and weak
lift with shortwave trough over the northern parts of the forecast
area. Have kept small chances of showers this afternoon...mainly
north of Interstate 94.

The 27.00z GFS/NAM show strato cumulus deck eroding around 06z
Tuesday...as subsidence and drier airmass advects in. However...the
forecast area remains under the influence of cyclonic flow and ridge
axis is west of the forecast area. This may delay clouds eroding
over the forecast area. For now...have kept trends of clouds
decreasing or clearing around 06z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Next forecast concern are temperatures across the forecast area
Tuesday into Wednesday...as the 27.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good
agreement in building surface ridge and advect cooler airmass into
the forecast area. The models indicate 850mb temperatures falling
into the plus 7 to plus 12 degrees celsius range both Tuesday
into Wednesday. High temperatures are expected to below normal.

Focus then turns to late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday...as
the 27.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF show ridge building east of the forecast
area and southerly winds on backside of ridge advect moisture into
the Upper Midwest. Differences occur between the 27.00z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF with timing of moisture return and shortwave trough
moving into the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday...as the GFS is quicker in movement/advecting moisture
into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon than the ECMWF/NAM.
This will have impacts on timing of the possibility of showers
and thunderstorms during this period. With surface ridge and dry
airmass over the forecast area...have trended to a drier solution
Wednesday afternoon and increase chances Wednesday night.

Main forecast concerns Friday through Sunday are temperatures across
the forecast area. The 27.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in good agreement in
digging upper level trough over the northeastern United States and
building upper level ridge over the Rocky Mountains through the
period. This allows northerly flow aloft to develop over the Great
Lakes Region and a cooler airmass to advect into the forecast area.
The 27.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM suggest 850mb temperatures to be in the
plus 8 degrees to plus 12 degrees celsius range. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the period. Dry weather can be
expected Friday through Sunday...as the 27.00z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
indicate surface ridge to dominate the forecast area through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will move south through the taf sites today around
27.18z. In the wake of this front, there still looks like there
will be the potential for a 3-4K deck at both sites for this
afternoon...and then it will quickly dissipate this evening. The
west winds will gradually shift to northwest by early afternoon
and north by this evening. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots today
and drop to around 5 knots tonight as high pressure builds across
the region.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE



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