Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 021130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/MCV MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL IA TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX OF CONVECTION GIVEN HUMID/HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. FEW HOURLY PRECIPITATION REPORTS
COMING IN FROM 3/4 TO JUST OVER AN INCH. OTHERWISE...MUGGY EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE TROUGH/MCV CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA
TODAY. RAP SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. SO...EXPECTING THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES FALLING OFF DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES EAST WITH
THE TROUGH. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH
OF I-90 OR NOSE OF THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY GIVEN LOW-
END BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION...COULD BE SOME SPORADIC HIGHER WIND
GUSTS MIXED IN WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON MUGGY CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS STAYING IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 90-95 DEGREE
RANGE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WANING 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR MUGGY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY DAY ON TAP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

FRIDAY APPEARS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HANG ON
DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THESE FEATURES IN
DETAIL...YIELDING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY.
APPEARS LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE CONVERGING ON SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING ON
INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. APPEARS HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY CLEARING
THE AREA BY AFTERNOON ON LABOR DAY. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. COOLER/DRIER AIR IS ON TAP OTHERWISE WITH HIGHS LOOKING
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

02.1130Z REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHEAST MN AND INTO
EASTERN IA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT THIS
LINE OF STORMS TO IMPACT BOTH KRST/KLSE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AT KRST AS STRONGEST STORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 02.12Z AND
02.14Z...BUT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE WITH STORM TIMING
FROM 02.13Z TO 02.15Z. ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF TAF AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...THINK WESTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS AT
THE TOP OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IN MIST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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