RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Bismarck, ND
000
FGUS73 KBIS 231832
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-281800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
130 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2009
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
DRAINAGE SYSTEM OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...VALID THROUGH 24
JANUARY 2010.
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID 26 OCTOBER 2009 - 24 JANUARY 2009
THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK...NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...AND JANUARY
SHOWS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...33 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...AND A 27 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK ALSO SHOWS AN EQUAL CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR LOWER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NO RIVERS OR STREAMS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE GOING INTO THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS...THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS STREAMS AND RIVERS BEGIN TO FREEZE OVER AND
HISTORICALLY THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANCE OF ENOUGH RUNOFF TO PUSH
GAGES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DURING NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...AND JANUARY.
HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS KEPT MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ABOVE
THEIR NORMALLY LOW STAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TABLE 1 SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE DEFINED FLOOD STAGES.
FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.
TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
VALID 26 OCTOBER 2009 - 24 JANUARY 2010
CHANCE
LOCATION FS (FT) EXCEEDING FS
-------- ------- ------------
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 LESS THAN 10%
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 LESS THAN 10%
FOXHOLM 3E 10 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT 4NW 14 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT-BRDWY BRDG 1549 LESS THAN 10%
LOGAN 34 LESS THAN 10%
SAWYER 22 LESS THAN 10%
VELVA 1505 LESS THAN 10%
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 6N 7 LESS THAN 10%
SOURIS RIVER
TOWNER 52 LESS THAN 10%
BANTRY 8E 11 LESS THAN 10%
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 LESS THAN 10%
SOURIS RIVER
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 LESS THAN 10%
FS = FLOOD STAGE
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER AT THE GIVEN LOCATION WOULD RISE ABOVE THE INDICATED STAGE LEVELS
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: DES LACS RIVER AT FOXHOLM HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 16 FEET. IN
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 5.0 FEET...BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT
WILL RISE ABOVE 6.4 FEET.
TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 26 OCTOBER 2009 - 24 JANUARY 2010
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
________ ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.4
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1
FOXHOLM 3E 10 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
MINOT 4NW 14 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.3
MINOT BWY BR 1549 1539.9 1539.9 1540.0 1540.0 1540.3 1540.6 1540.7 1540.8 1541.1
LOGAN 36 21.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.5
SAWYER 22 6.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.8
VELVA 1505 1489.7 1490.8 1490.9 1491.0 1491.1 1491.2 1491.4 1491.5 1491.7
TOWNER 1NW 52 44.1 44.1 44.1 44.6 44.9 45.0 45.6 46.4 47.0
BANTRY 8E 11 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.9
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.7
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.1
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE PEAK RIVER FLOWS REACHED DURING A
SERIES OF MODEL RUNS USING EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED
WITH MORE THAN 30 YEARS OF HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE
CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS INFORMATION IS
ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW...VOLUME...AND AS WEEKLY
PROBABILITIES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS AND EXPLANATIONS
THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK
AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK
TABLE 3 IS A FEATURE THAT PROVIDES PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR "HOW LOW COULD
THE RIVER GO?" THIS FEATURE IS INCLUDED ON OUR AHPS WEB PAGES
FOR EACH FORECAST POINT IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN THAT HAS PROBABILISTIC
GRAPHICS PRODUCED FOR THEM. PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW INFORMATION WILL PROVIDE
USEFUL INFORMATION DURING DROUGHTS...AND FOR RIVER USERS INTERESTED IN
FISHERIES...INDUSTRIAL DISCHARGES...DILUTION RATIOS...RECREATION...
IRRIGATION...AND NAVIGATION. IT WILL AID IN RISK ASSESSMENT DURING SITUATIONS
WHERE LOW FLOWS MAY BE CRITICAL TO OPERATIONS.
TABLE 3. CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW INDICATED STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 26 OCTOBER 2009 - 24 JANUARY 2010
LOCATION FS (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
________ _______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
FOXHOLM 3E 10 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
MINOT 4NW 14 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1
MINOT BWY BR 1549 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.3 1532.6 1533.1 1533.6 1534.0 1534.9
LOGAN 36 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.6
SAWYER 22 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9
VELVA 1505 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.3
TOWNER 1NW 52 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.5
BANTRY 8E 11 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING HISTORICAL WEATHER PATTERNS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE...FLOW...AND VOLUME...AND
AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES FOR THE 90-DAY PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS AND EXPLANATIONS
THAT HELP IN THEIR INTERPRETATION ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL 13 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SOURIS RIVER
BASIN ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. FIVE-DAY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN NOVEMBER 2009.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK FOR MORE WEATHER AND
FLOOD INFORMATION.
$$
AJS
