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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AND DRY AIR TO COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BACKED INTO THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THIS MORNING AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE
TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS FOR THIS...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF COLORADO. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW LOWER 90S MAY ALSO BE MIXED IN.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
WARM AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES LIKELY ABOVE
50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EWRD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL RETURN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER NORTHEAST OF DENVER COULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH MIN RH
VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/50S...AND WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING...COULD SEE ONE OR TWO LATE DAY STORMS FORMING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER. WITH WEAK SHEAR...SHALLOW MOISTURE AND A FREEZING
LEVEL QUITE HIGH...GENERAL THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FOR NOW...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
APPEARS QUITE CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

ON MONDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EWRD MARCH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN AND AND NRN ROCKIES...PLACING COLORADO UNDER A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS...EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT
NEAR THE NEB BORDER WHERE A LIGHT NELY BNDRY LAYER FLOW WILL HOLD
DEWPOINTS TO THE 40S/LOWER 50S. AS WAS THE CASE ON SUNDAY...COULD
SEE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO OUT NEAR THE CORNER LATE IN THE DAY. MTN
AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A FEW LATE DAY STORMS POP WITH STG HEATING AND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER DUE TO SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LARGE OPEN WAVE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR LIFT APPEARS TO PASS
NORTH OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL INDICATED A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A SHARPLY CURVED LOBE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWRD OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THE MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE COULD MAKE FOR A DAY OF ACTIVE IF NOT SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS...PREFER TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. OF COURSE STILL CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR POOL ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED AND WITH DECREASING MOISTURE...THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH...PARTICULARLY ON
THE PLAINS. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK
ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING HAZE AND A FEW LOW
CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH OF DENVER AND LIKELY CREATE A DENVER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH
OF KDEN. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND 00Z...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES EAST
OF DENVER.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER