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000
FXUS63 KDLH 200842
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
342 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.CURRENT...LINE OF CONVECTION...SUB SEVERE...CONTINUES TO TRAIN
ALONG BORDERLAND FROM NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY TO THE GRAND MARAIS
VICINITY. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PWAT AXIS PRODUCED BY THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF CANADIAN COLD FRONT. A FEW RAWS SITES
HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN THE PAST
6 HRS. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS SW OF CWA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
LLJ COMBINED WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE. A FEW STORMS ARE APPROACHING
THE BRD LAKES REGION WITH AN ISOLATED CELL OVER SRN AITKIN COUNTY.


TODAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LLJ MAXIMUM WILL TRANSLATE
EAST AND WEAKEN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
ALOFT ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A STRENGTHENING  WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL GENERATE INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. BY 18Z ANY SBCIN HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OVER MOST OF CWA SO
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE. HOWEVER PLACING SPECIFIC HIGHER POPS IS
TOUGH GIVEN NEBULOUS SFC BASED CONVERGENCE/LIFTING FEATURES OF
NOTE. PREFRONTAL TROUGH NEAR BORDER IS ABSORBED INTO OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE SHOULD BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT EVEN
THE HIRES MDLS HAVE UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS LOCATION. CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE MARGINAL SEVERE BASED ON LACK OF ORGANIZED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST SREF CALIBRATED PROBABILITY SVR INDICATES
GREATEST CHANCE OVER SWRN CWA IN AREA OF SBCAPE NEAR 3000/3500
J/KG.


TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACK EAST OR ESE INTO MN BY MORNING. 85H
MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS SHIFTS INTO TWIN PORTS BY 12Z. BIG QUESTION AS
USUAL...WHERE IS THE BEST LOW LVL FOCUS TO FOCUS CORE OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP. GFS/EC SHOW A BIFURCATED QPF PATTERN SUGGESTING TWO AREAS
OF SIG CONVECTION OCCUR. SREF MCS MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS HINT AT
HIGHEST PRECIP VALUES SWINGING ALONG MPX/DLH BORDER. DAYSHIFT WILL
NEED TO ASSESS LATER DATA TO DETERMINE IF THERE ARE MORE CLEAR
SIGNALS OF FAVORED CHANNEL OF CONVECTION. MCS WILL MOVE EAST OF
AREA TOMORROW AND A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS WILL OCCUR AS ATMOSPHERE
RECHARGES FOR NEXT ROUND.



LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY

ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FACTOR IN THE LONG TERM...

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WHERE IT EXACTLY ENDS UP IS STILL IN QUESTION...FARTHER
SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN/CENTRAL WI LIKE THE THE SREF AND AND
GFS OR FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MPX/DLH CWA. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUS
OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY.
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS STORMS TRAVERSE THE SAME
GENERAL AREA.

EAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT...OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
PROVIDE COOL AND VERY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AREA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER MAY QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK
WEEK....WITH MOMENTARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WI. THEN ANOTHER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


.AVIATION... 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD IN THE MID MORNING WHERE
RAIN MOVES OUT AND THEN REDEVELOPS IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY
LATE EVENING TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH/SE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS.



.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  57  75  56 /  50  70  50  40
INL  80  60  76  58 /  60  70  40  30
BRD  79  67  80  64 /  40  70  20  60
HYR  79  63  81  64 /  50  70  60  50
ASX  78  57  75  53 /  40  70  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....CLC