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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER...COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
WEEKEND WILL BECOME WARMER WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT AROUND 5K FEET...AND FOLLOWING THESE FORECASTS THE
CLOUDS SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE. IT WILL
BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S...MID 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND UPPER/AROUND 50 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES.

FOR TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION...MOST PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE
FOR A TIME SKIES WILL BE PARTY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA
WILL AVERAGE +5 TO +6C WHICH WILL BRING COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY....WARMTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE HIGHS FRIDAY TO AROUND 80...JUST IN TIME FOR
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CENTER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH AND EXPECTED
DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION WILL TAKE
HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AT LEADING EDGE
OF THIS THETA E ADVECTION AND JUST AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED EASTWARD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT SATURDAY.

LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SHOWING SOME TREND TO THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS IN ADVERTISING A MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IS QUITE LOW
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVES TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING ALSO WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOW
LEVEL DEW POINT TRENDS WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH WARMER PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. IF CAP DOES HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...A POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DROP
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ABOUT 5K
FEET. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES INTO WEDNESDAY. FINE
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS