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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190536
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
136 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...THEN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6
KFT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. IT WILL
BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S...MID 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...AND UPPER/AROUND 50 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES.

FOR TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM MICHIGAN TO LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION...MOST PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO WHERE
FOR A TIME SKIES WILL BE PARTY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA
WILL AVERAGE +5 TO +6C WHICH WILL BRING COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY....WARMTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUR WAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE. THIS WILL TAKE HIGHS FRIDAY TO AROUND 80...JUST IN TIME FOR
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL CENTER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH AND EXPECTED
DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION WILL TAKE
HOLD BY THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AT LEADING EDGE
OF THIS THETA E ADVECTION AND JUST AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED EASTWARD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT SATURDAY.

LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SHOWING SOME TREND TO THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE GFS IN ADVERTISING A MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IS QUITE LOW
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVES TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. STRENGTH OF ANY CAPPING ALSO WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOW
LEVEL DEW POINT TRENDS WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN A MUCH WARMER PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE
80S. IF CAP DOES HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...A POSSIBILITY
DOES EXIST FOR EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SETTLES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. A FEW
CLOUDS WILL DROP ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD INDUCE SOME BRIEF 5-6 KFT CIGS...OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR