Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281942
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND
FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LESS CLOUD
COVER...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOT EH NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 90 AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ABOUT WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT KEEPS A CAP ON THINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BY SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO QUEBEC
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. IT DOESNT APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL OHIO AND
BECOME A FACTOR IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY.

AFTER THE HOT DAY ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO WITH A STRONG PIECE OF JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THIS NEXT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT COULD BECOME ROBUST. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
TAKES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID WEEK. GFS WANTS TO
CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY DELAYING HIGH PRESSURE
UNTIL THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
LIFTED AND/OR SCATTERED OUT AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
MORNING. ACROSS THE EAST MAY HAVE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG AND HAVE
INCLUDED IT AT YNG AND CAK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH ITSELF SHIFTS EAST FOR FRIDAY. WILL STILL
GET A LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE FRIDAY...FOR CLE IT IS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST FOR FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
EAST END SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH TO NEAR
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL PULL BACK NORTH AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
FINAL COMPLETE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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