Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211903
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
302 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO
FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY THEN A LOW WILL MOVE INTO
OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW. ANY ISOLATED EVENING SHRA/TSRA WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET ALONG WITH THE CUMULUS CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER RIDGING TUE TO KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 90 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

TUE NIGHT WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE INTO THE LAKES. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER TUE NIGHT BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WED INTO WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ONLY LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HERE
AND THERE.

ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE PRESENT FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA
IN THE SE THU...OTHERWISE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BE SPREADING
SE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS THRUT THE ARE THU NIGHT
WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ON SATURDAY. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS IT WAS LAST WEEK. THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL GET DOWN TO 10C...WHILE LAST WEEK IT GOT
DOWN TO 5C.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS DO DIFFER...THE 00Z
ECMWF TRIES TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN
RETROGRADES IT. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPED BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH
THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT A LAKE BREEZE ALSO DEVELOPED. NO
TRIGGER FOR ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THE CUMULUS WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. MORE MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
INLAND LOCATIONS...SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE AT NON TAF SITES. ON
TUESDAY MORE OF THE SAME WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY NOON ALONG
WITH A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING...SO IT SHOULD TAKE LONGER TO GET
TO CLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE. A LAND BREEZE IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EAST OF
CLEVELAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
STRONG. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD PROMPT THE NEED FOR
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS
COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA







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