Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE
TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY AND FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SUNDAY DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT UPDATES
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND KEEP A SLIGHTLY COOL AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER THE REGION IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
EAST...COOL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE.

LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES PIVOT 8C DEGREES INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND 12C DEGREES INTO WESTERN
OHIO. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT I THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD
SEE A LOT OF SUN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD BY THE WEEKEND
FORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DO THE SAME. THIS WILL IN TURN
CAUSE A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. FAIRLY RAPID MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 18C
DEGREES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERMAL RIDGE OF 19.6C DEGREES NUDGES
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY. BIG CONCERN IS HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 90.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE AND COLD FRONT PULL OUT TO THE
EAST. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS BASICALLY NULL AND VOID WITH
VERY LITTLE COOLING TAKING PLACE. WE ONLY LOSE ABOUT 2 DEGREES AT
850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT. SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ARE TOUGH...WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEY ALSO HAVE QPF. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
THE RIDGE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW IS NORTHERLY AND BY
DAYBREAK THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND
10 OR 11C WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THIS TIME OF
YEAR YOU CAN NEED THE SUN TO HELP THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN THE AREA UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON THE THREAT OF CEILINGS AROUND
3000 FEET WILL BE INCREASING. MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATE THIS. AS
THE RIDGE AND SOME DRIER AIR BUILDS IN LATER TODAY THE CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...IT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTH OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND THEN
START DECREASING AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL HAVE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET TO START AND THEN DECREASE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. NO RIP CURRENT ISSUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST END. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED.

BOATERS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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