Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 291600
ESFEAX
KSC005-043-091-103-107-121-209-MOC001-003-005-013-021-025-033-037-
041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-107-115-117-
121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-052100-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1000 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

2010 WINTER/SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1

THIS WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT
HILL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE KANSAS
RIVER...MISSOURI RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

                   LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
                  VALID JANUARY 31 2010 TO MAY 1 2010.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.

THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID JAN 31 2010 TO MAY 1 2010.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE 102 RIVER AT MARYVILLE
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 18 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 19.9 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------     ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
102 RIVER
MARYVILLE         18  13.5 14.5 15.5 16.8 17.2 18.4 19.5 19.9 22.2
ROSENDALE         18  13.1 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 17.8 18.8 20.0

LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE        27  16.6 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.5 19.1 20.9 22.1 24.0

PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY            20  22.7 24.2 25.1 26.2 27.0 27.9 28.6 29.5 30.6
SHARPS STATION    26  26.8 28.0 29.0 29.7 30.6 32.0 32.7 33.6 34.1
PLATTE CITY       20  20.3 22.0 23.4 24.4 26.0 28.0 28.7 29.7 30.4

NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JCT    23  12.7 13.9 14.6 17.0 18.5 19.3 20.7 22.5 24.5

TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX           17  14.0 15.6 18.0 19.8 21.7 25.1 25.4 26.1 26.7

THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON           30  18.4 19.7 21.3 22.7 24.5 25.1 26.6 27.8 29.2

GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG       25   8.2 14.1 17.7 20.3 22.4 23.4 27.6 27.9 29.3
GALLATIN          26  12.0 15.7 18.8 21.0 22.0 25.6 27.3 28.0 30.2
CHILLICOTHE       24  17.4 21.5 24.3 25.6 27.6 29.0 30.2 32.4 34.6
SUMNER            26  25.0 29.4 31.0 32.0 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.9 36.8

CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER          20   7.4  8.3 11.5 12.9 14.6 15.8 17.0 17.8 21.5
PRAIRIE HILL      15   8.7 10.0 14.0 15.2 16.0 17.2 17.6 18.6 19.7

BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BLVD   35  26.1 26.9 27.6 28.2 29.3 30.2 30.7 32.3 34.0
BANNISTER ROAD    34   7.6  9.8 12.4 14.0 16.0 19.4 21.8 24.4 28.1

LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY         18   7.2  7.6  8.3 10.2 11.2 12.4 13.1 15.7 18.2

CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND          20  11.9 13.5 15.9 16.7 18.6 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.7

WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON        16   8.9  9.5 10.6 12.8 15.6 18.3 20.1 21.2 22.8

BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY       22  13.3 15.3 20.6 22.8 25.9 28.3 29.2 30.9 32.6
BLUE LICK         24  22.7 24.9 25.6 26.4 28.2 28.5 29.3 30.4 34.1

LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE        15   9.1 11.2 14.3 15.5 16.4 18.1 19.5 22.4 24.3

MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE           16  13.6 15.0 16.8 18.5 19.5 22.1 23.6 24.7 26.0

PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE         16   9.8 10.6 14.0 15.7 18.1 20.1 22.1 24.5 27.3

OUTLOOK:

CURRENTLY SNOW COVER RANGED FROM NEAR ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE COUNTIES OF THE IOWA
BORDER...WITH NO SNOW COVER FURTHER SOUTH. UPSTREAM SNOW COVER WAS
FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT...WITH BETWEEN 6 AND 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT LOCKED IN THIS SNOW PACK UPSTREAM IS BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR
INCHES....WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN FOR THE MID WINTER TIME
FRAME...AND MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SNOW MELTS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.
IN ADDITION...SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IS ABNORMALLY
HIGH...AND ANY FUTURE RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH THE MELTING SNOW
UPSTREAM COULD LEAD TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RIVER FLOODING.

THE FOLLOWING RIVER BASINS HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOODING POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS: TARKIO...102...PLATTE...GRAND...AND
BLACKWATER.

RECENT CONDITIONS:

OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 75
AND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI IN THE LAST 30 DAYS. LONGER TERM OVER THE
PAST 90 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS RANGED FROM 100 TO 150 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS WERE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...ALTHOUGH HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY. THESE RECENT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE MELTED MUCH OF
THE SNOW COVER THAT WAS PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MONTH. THIS HAS LED TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ICE
JAMS...PARTICULARLY ON THE PLATTE AND GRAND RIVER BASINS.

PRESENT CONDITIONS:

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE LED TO
ENHANCED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF. WITH MUCH OF SNOW PACK EXHAUSTED AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING...MUCH OF THE RECENT
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS HAS SUBSIDED. SOIL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING IN
THE 70TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRESENT
STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST THAT ANY FUTURE HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR FLOODING.

FUTURE CONDITIONS:

FOR THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD COVERING THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY...THE
TEMPERATURES OUTLOOK INDICATES A VERY SLIGHT PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE. AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK...THERE ARE ALSO EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY THROUGH
APRIL CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SAME PERIOD ALSO
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THIS IS AN INITIAL EARLY RELEASE OF THE 2010 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOK. THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED ON
OR ABOUT FEBRUARY 19TH. PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX/ FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

$$

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