Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242134
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
334 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a little less moisture for the next couple of days,
but there will still be enough moisture to help fuel areas of
thunderstorms each day. By the end of the week we will see more
moisture return to the area to help increase our rain chances
again. Our rain chances will continue through the coming weekend.
Temperatures the next two days will be a couple of degrees above
average, then with the return of moisture we will see temperatures
a couple of degrees below average for the end of the week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After a very slow start to our monsoon season, we have certainly
been making up for lost time. Currently, abundant moisture is
lingering over the region. We have precipitable water values of
around 1.5 inches which is very high. Combine that with slow
steering winds aloft and the very warm cloud depth (warm rain
process) and there is a good potential tonight for some isolated
flash flooding. The main threat will be west of the Rio Grande.

For Tuesday and Wednesday our old friend the upper level ridge
will begin to drift to our east which will help push the main
moisture plume into Arizona so we should see a slight down tick
in our thunderstorm activity. At the same time we will see
temperatures a few degrees above average as the deeper moisture
pushes to our west.

For Thursday and Friday we will see the upper level ridge drift
back to the Four Corners region while at the same time an east
push will help push some more moisture and instability into the
area so we will see an uptick in our rain chances for the end of
the week. As you might guess our temperatures will drop back to,
or a degree or two below average.

For next weekend both the GFS and ECMWF try and dry the east out a
bit, but keep some deeper moisture over the west. Things won`t be
quite dry enough to pull the pops east of the Rio Grande, but I
have lowered them a bit. For the start of next week both the GFS
and ECMWF indicate that the upper level ridge will drift further
to our west which will allows us to pull some recycled high and
mid level moisture and instability down from Colorado while our
surface flow will be from southeast which will allow abundant
low level moisture into the region. It looks like this monsoon
season has some legs.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z..mostly VFR conditions are
expected with P6SM SCT-BKN050 BKN-OVC100-120 through the period. Sfc
winds gnly SE_SW 5-12 kts. Scattered thunderstorms again til 09Z
Local MVFR to IFR briefly in SCT tstms winds VRB27G37KT 1-3 SM TSRA
BKN030CB OVC070 thru 09Z esply west of the Rio Grande. Activity much
more isolated on Tuesday aftn.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As the North American monsoon continues over Arizona and New Mexico,
our airmass remains moist and unstable. Storm coverage today will be
a bit less than Sunday, but local heavy rain and  flooding is still
possible. Thunderstorm coverage will lessen to  isolated Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure aloft strengthens over New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm back to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. A
slight increase in moisture will increase  thunderstorm coverage
again on Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge of high pressure
drifts more northward. Min RH values over the zones today will range
from 35% to 45% lowlands and 50% to 60% above 7500 feet. Values will
be about 5% lower on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  94  73  96 /  30  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           69  91  69  92 /  30  20  20  20
Las Cruces              68  93  69  95 /  30  20  20  20
Alamogordo              68  92  70  94 /  40  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              52  70  52  72 /  50  70  20  40
Truth or Consequences   68  92  69  94 /  40  20  30  20
Silver City             62  87  63  89 /  50  40  30  30
Deming                  68  91  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
Lordsburg               67  90  69  93 /  50  30  30  20
West El Paso Metro      71  93  72  95 /  30  20  20  20
Dell City               70  94  72  97 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            73  94  74  96 /  30  20  20  20
Loma Linda              67  89  69  90 /  30  20  20  20
Fabens                  72  94  73  96 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            70  93  71  95 /  30  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          69  92  70  95 /  30  20  20  20
Jornada Range           68  92  69  95 /  40  20  20  20
Hatch                   68  94  69  97 /  40  20  20  20
Columbus                69  92  70  95 /  40  20  20  20
Orogrande               71  92  72  94 /  30  20  20  20
Mayhill                 57  81  57  82 /  50  70  20  40
Mescalero               57  81  58  82 /  50  70  20  40
Timberon                57  80  58  80 /  50  50  20  40
Winston                 61  86  61  88 /  50  50  30  40
Hillsboro               65  91  66  93 /  50  40  30  30
Spaceport               67  92  68  95 /  40  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            57  85  58  88 /  50  50  30  40
Hurley                  62  88  64  91 /  50  40  30  30
Cliff                   61  90  61  92 /  50  40  30  30
Mule Creek              62  89  61  91 /  50  40  30  30
Faywood                 63  89  64  91 /  50  40  30  30
Animas                  67  90  69  93 /  50  30  30  20
Hachita                 67  90  67  93 /  50  30  30  20
Antelope Wells          66  89  67  92 /  50  40  30  30
Cloverdale              63  87  65  89 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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