Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242239
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions with below normal temperatures will continue
into Sunday, with warmer temperatures coming back in for Monday. A
strong upper level disturbance will develop along the west coast
early next week, and will bring windy conditions to our area
Tuesday afternoon. Spotty lowland rain showers, and scattered
mountain snow showers will affect the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning, along with continued windy conditions.
Accumulating snow will be light, and generally only above 5500 to
6000 feet elevation. Quieter and warmer conditions will return
for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Longwave trough will dominate the western part of North America
through the next several days, with several shortwave troughs
expected to pass through the Desert Southwest with varying
effects.

Today we are in the wake of one such shortwave, but another is
moving into Nevada presently, and will swing across northern New
Mexico Sunday. The glancing blow, and the early timing of the
system will mean its impacts will be little more than breezy west
to northwest winds for the southern part of the state and nearby
west Texas. It will also help keep cooler air in place. Highs
tomorrow will be a slight increase over today, but still running
3-6 degrees below normal.

The second, and much stronger system will dig out over the west
coast early next week, with a closed low at 500 mb deepening over
southern California by Tuesday morning. Expect increasingly breezy
to windy SW flow ahead of this system on Tuesday, strongest west
of the Continental Divide.

Looking at the mid-levels, a plume of subtropical moisture will
try to get pulled up ahead of the trough, but it never quite makes
contact. So Tuesday we will be in a dry slot, with the subtropical
moisture well to our south over Mexico and reaching into south
Texas.

The system will dig far enough south to bring cooler air aloft and
a little moisture late Tuesday night into Wednesday. QPF amount
look to range from around a Trace to a few hundredths in the
lowlands, to around 0.10 inches in the Gila, Sacramentos, and
Bootheel. Windy conditions will likely continue Tuesday night east
of the higher terrain. Pacific frontal passage looks to occur
early Wednesday morning. Again, not ideal timing for strong winds,
but with tight pressure gradient, strong PVA, and 850 mb winds
around 40 knots, gusty winds will likely still be an issue during
the overnight and early morning hours (especially along east-slope
locations).

Snow levels look to drop to around 5500 feet by Wednesday morning,
with mixed precip possible down to around 4500 feet in SW New
Mexico as precip is ending (very narrow window). Unless
moisture/QPF increases, it looks like only 1-2 inches of snow
would be the most we see out of this system in the Gila and
Sacramentos.

Quieter weather looks to prevail for the end of the week, with
another trough approaching towards the weekend, likely taking a
more northerly (drier) track.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR conditions expected through the period. SKC-FEW250 with winds
290-320 at 15G20KT this afternoon followed by 260-290 at 10-15KT
tonight and tomorrow morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The base of an upper trough has moved through the area, leading to
cooler temperatures today. Winds are still breezy over portions of
the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County but are expected to
back off tonight. Temperatures will rebound to above normal by
Monday. Min RH values around 15-20% will exist today/Sunday and will
likely drop below 15% most areas Monday/Tuesday. Conditions on
Tuesday will be near critical thresholds as winds will peak 20-25
mph mid-afternoon along with above normal temperatures. A Pacific
cold front on Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures and a chance
for lowland rain showers and mountain snow. Gusty winds are expected
along with a recovery in min RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 30  61  29  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           29  62  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              23  58  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              26  57  24  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              23  38  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   28  57  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             24  50  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  24  58  21  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               21  54  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      34  59  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               22  63  26  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            30  64  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              29  56  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  23  62  26  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            28  59  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          29  59  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           16  58  20  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   21  61  21  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                26  59  23  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               31  59  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 25  47  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               25  45  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                19  45  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 17  53  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               27  57  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               21  58  23  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            14  50  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  19  52  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   13  55  19  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              25  51  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 25  55  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  21  57  21  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 21  57  23  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          23  61  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              29  56  28  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman/30-Dennhardt


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.
  • National Weather Service
  • El Paso, TX Weather Forecast Office
  • 7955 Airport Rd
  • Santa Teresa, NM 88008
  • (575) 589-4088
  • Page Author: EPZ Webmaster
  • Web Master's E-mail: sr-epz.webmaster@noaa.gov
  • Page last modified: Jan 10th, 2018 19:57 UTC