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FXUS64 KEPZ 221002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
302 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler air behind a weak backdoor front will be in place today.
Breezy conditions along western slopes can be expected during the
morning hours. Meanwhile a strong upper high to the west will
begin moving eastward and bring a return to warm daytime
temperatures that will peak at about 15 to 17 degrees above normal
on the weekend. In fact, the entire Thanksgiving holiday weekend
will have fabulous weather, followed by a cool change next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly flow on the east side of a strong upper high centered
west of Baja CA will bring some high clouds over the area today.
Meanwhile a surface ridge to the east has pushed in a weak
backdoor front resulting in breezy conditions along western
slopes, with today`s high temps expected to be about 6 to 8
degrees cooler than Tuesday. Even so, it will still be slightly
warmer than normal.

The upper high will move eastward over the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend and provide dry weather with temperatures well above
normal. The record max temps Saturday and especially Sunday will
be threatened. On Monday the upper high will be pushed east of us
by an approaching upper trough, but increasing southwesterly flow
should keep temperatures well above normal and possibly challenge
another record high.

As of the 00Z Wednesday model runs the ECM has trended toward the
GFS with a fast moving upper trough moving NW to SE across the
Borderland Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions will result but the
trajectory is a dry one. Temperatures will drop to a little below
normal before sliding (drum roll) to a little BELOW normal by
midweek. But even if that does occur during the last two days of
November, it may not be enough to keep November 2017 from being
the warmest (averaging high and lows) on record. It will be close.
No complaints from me!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/12Z-23/12Z... VFR thru the period with P6SM
SCT-BKN250. Winds generally E to SE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Aside from high level cloudiness the region will remain dry and
warmer than normal through the forecast period. A weak front moving
through the region will bring slightly cooler temps today with
readings returning to 10 degrees or more above normal for
Thanksgiving and the upcoming weekend. Min RH values will
generally be in the upper teens and 20s until the weekend when
western zones could drop below 15%. Vent rates will generally be
poor as a ridge of high pressure settles over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           65  38  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              66  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              54  27  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   67  39  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             62  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  68  35  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               68  37  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      67  40  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               65  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            69  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              63  38  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  69  38  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            66  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           65  34  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   66  36  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                68  36  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               65  39  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 60  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               59  33  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                57  30  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 66  31  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               67  36  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               66  34  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            68  30  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  64  33  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   67  30  74  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              68  29  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 65  36  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  68  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 69  34  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69  35  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              68  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett



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