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000
FXUS63 KDLH 162110
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
410 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are occurring this afternoon
  across far northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
  Relative Humidity values of 15 to 25 percent and strong winds
  are expected there.

- Windy conditions will continue this evening with gusts of 40
  to 50 mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the
  Arrowhead down into the Twin Ports through this evening.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms have spread into the southern
  half of the forecast area this afternoon, and will continue
  to push north tonight. Rain amounts from a quarter to around
  one inch are expected today through Thursday, with most
  falling through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts may be found
  along the North Shore, and parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

- A light wintry mix will be possible tonight into Wednesday
  morning, again Wednesday night into Thursday morning over
  parts of the North Shore. Light accumulating snow is possible
  for far northern Minnesota Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Things are getting quite interesting out there this afternoon,
with rain spreading in from the south with a little embedded
thunder in it. As the rain moves in, the winds increase, with
gusts beginning to push into the 40 mph range, with a few places
around the Twin Ports even stronger than that. Before the rain
moves in, RH values have dropped into the 15 to 25 percent
range, which then rapidly rises as rain moves into the immediate
area. Expect this trend to continue as the rain pushes north
through the evening. This precipitation should be all rain, but
due to the dry lower layers, there may be a brief period of snow
before RH values increase and the precip stays all rain. The
band of heavier precipitation over central MN will also push
north this evening, forced by the mid level frontogenesis and
the plume of strong moisture advection and isentropic lift that
pushes north across the forecast area tonight. We should get an
area of lighter precipitation behind this initial surge of
rain, followed by another heavier band closer to the mid level
low center, which then moves across the area during the day on
Wednesday. Surface temperatures may drop into the lower thirties
along the higher terrain leading to a wintry mix but any
accumulations should not be significant. PWAT values are still
forecast to be from 0.75 to 1". These values remain in the 90th
percentile which is high but not extreme. Rainfall amounts today
through Wednesday are expected to range from around a quarter
inch to around an inch, though there may be some locally higher
amounts along the North Shore and parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The wind will be diminishing from west to east tonight and
through the day Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday...

Colder air will move in behind the departing low, leaving a
trough extending back across the region Thursday and Friday.
There will be chances, 20-60%, for showers Thursday into Friday
(lowest south and highest north toward the International
Border). The precipitation will mix with or change to snow
during the overnight/morning periods but any snow accumulation
will be light. Friday will be the coolest day of the period with
highs from the upper thirties to mid-forties. It will also be
windy Friday with west or northwest winds gusting to 30 to 35
mph.

Saturday into early next week...

A drier period is expected with temperatures warming. Highs by
Sunday will be in the fifties, continuing into early next week.
There is some potential for another round of precipitation early
next week, but model agreement is very low, ensemble spread is
high, and do not have much confidence in it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Difficult flying weather for this TAF period. All the terminals
were VFR as of issuance time, with rain just beginning at KBRD.
Conditions to gradually deteriorate over the next 12 hours, with
ceilings gradually dropping to at least MVFR by 06z tonight,
then lower still to IFR for some sites by 09z, with the lowering
conditions spreading from southwest to northeast with the
incoming rainfall. Visibilities are also expected to lower to
MVFR as the rain moves in. Once conditions get to IFR, I expect
most sites to remain IFR through the end of the TAF period,
though we may get some visibility improvements as breaks in the
precipitation begin to work in. Wind is a fairly significant
concern, with winds continuing to increase this afternoon,
sustaining in the 15-25knot range with gusts over 30kts for most
of the terminals between 22z and 06z, with winds beginning to
weaken after than, and then backing into the north and weakening
still further after 12z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Increasing east winds over western Lake Superior are leading to
widespread gales and flirting with storm force gusts over the Twin
Ports. As winds are expected to increase with gusts up to 50 kts
this evening, a Storm Warning was issued across the Twin Ports.
Tonight, winds will decrease slightly, and only gales will be
expected at the head of the lake. Gale Warnings are in effect for
most of the remaining nearshore waters with Small Craft Advisories
for Saxon Harbor to Chequamegon Bay. The wind will gradually back
through the day Wednesday to northeast and decrease some but
conditions will remain hazardous. A period of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms are moving to over the lake this afternoon and
will continue tonight and Wednesday.

However, this will be short-lived and west to southwest winds
will increase again Thursday creating hazardous conditions,
especially for smaller vessels. Strong winds will continue into
Friday.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-
     018-019.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ012-020-021-
     037.
WI...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>142.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ143-146-147-150.
     Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for LSZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE