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000
FXUS63 KICT 220016
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY:
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY.  ANY ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG OR PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT CHANCES
EXIST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.  THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS...KEEPING
WEDNESDAY DRY FOR KANSAS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MILD 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY:
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER.  THE CONCERN IS FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.  THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE
CHANCES WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO WEST OKLAHOMA.  WILL
NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS TIME PERIOD.

AS THAT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED
TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WEST KANSAS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.  LEE TROUGHING WILL BE INDUCED AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE
LOW SETS UP. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THIS CREATES
UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SUNDAY - TUESDAY:
THE LARGE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH THE PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT THE DISCREPANCIES MENTIONED EARLIER STILL REMAIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
ARE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BE POSSIBLE...THERE IS ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY...BUT BULK SHEAR IS LACKING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
SO FAR TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
AROUND 6-7 K FT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20KT AFTER 15Z ON WED.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    52  78  54  74 /  10   0  20  30
HUTCHINSON      51  77  52  72 /  10   0  20  30
NEWTON          50  76  51  71 /  10   0  20  20
ELDORADO        52  76  53  73 /  10   0  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  79  56  74 /  20   0  30  30
RUSSELL         48  75  50  72 /  10   0  20  20
GREAT BEND      49  77  51  71 /  10   0  20  20
SALINA          50  74  50  73 /  10   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       50  76  51  72 /  10   0  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     54  77  55  75 /  30   0  20  30
CHANUTE         53  76  53  73 /  20   0  20  20
IOLA            53  75  52  73 /  20   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    53  77  54  74 /  30   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$