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000
FXUS63 KLOT 191129
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
629 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT

METEOROLOGICALLY BORING WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE ONLY REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING BEING TEMPS AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A STELLAR
DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW HUMIDITY...MILD TEMPERATURES (ALBEIT
COOLER LAKESIDE) AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWING FOR A STEADY
WARM UP EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

POWER-HOUSE UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
AND GRADUALLY INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER LOW LOOK
FOR RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD...THOUGH HOW FAR NORTH THE HEART OF THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IS UP FOR DEBATE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. GFS
HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST/FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AND WOULD LIKELY SPELL HOT...HUMID AND RELATIVELY RAIN
FREE WX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT WEAKER WITH
UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES CLOSER TO THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY LEAVING OUR CWA IN THE LINE OF FIRE FOR THE RING OF FIRE
PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE MCS TO ROLL THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LEANING A BIT TOWARD THE DRIER AND
STEAMIER GFS SOLUTION...AND WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS SET OF RUNS DIDNT SEE ANY GOOD REASON TO CHANGE
COURSE FROM OUR GOING FORECAST. CERTAINLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE AND SHOULD MCS TRAIN COME ROLLING THROUGH THEN HIGHS
WOULD LIKELY BE MUCH COOLER AND IN THE 80S...HOWEVER SHOULD THE
RING `O FIRE STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WE STAY CAPPED THEN HIGHS IN
THE 90S WOULD BE LIKELY. DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE GEM IS MORE IN
THE ECMWF`S MCS CAMP...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES LATER FORECASTS
MAY NEED TO BEEF UP POPS AND TRIM TEMPS SOMEWHAT.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* NONE

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

VERY LITTLE GOING ON WEATHER-WISE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SPANS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING TO VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTH TOMORROW. GIVEN WINDS ARE ALREADY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY...A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WINDS
EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND POSSIBLY A SHIFT BACK TO
A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF EAST DIRECTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KT OUTSIDE OF A
POSSIBLE BRIEF INCREASE WITH A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

BMD


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND
  SPEEDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ELSE
VFR.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
243 AM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS AND WAVES HAVE ALREADY
DIMINISHED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...THUS WILL ALLOW
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE. WITH LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZES DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS
THE HIGH SETTLES TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY...AND FRESHEN UP FRIDAY
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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