National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions: 1 2 3 4
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FGUS73 KLSX 292032
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MOC051-055-071-099-111-113-127-151-163-173-189-221-ILC001-009-013-
027-051-149-302032-


PROBABALISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
232 PM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ABOVE CANTON MISSOURI TO ABOVE CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI...THE MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO ITS
CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ILLINOIS RIVER
DOWNSTREAM FROM BEARDSTOWN ILLINOIS TO ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND FOR TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN
MISSOURI...AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...THERE IS CURRENTLY MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT
LA GRANGE LOCK AND DAM...AT VALLEY CITY...AND AT HARDIN ILLINOIS
...ON THE KASKASKIA RIVER AT CARLYLE ILLINOIS BELOW THE DAM...AND ON
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...UPSTREAM SNOWPACK IN THE MISSISSIPPI...MISSOURI...AND
ILLINOIS RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS EXPECTED TYPICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MORE THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER THE
AREA.

THERE ARE EVEN OR GREATER THAN EVEN CHANCES FOR FLOODING ALONG MOST
OF THE RIVERS IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREEA OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THOSE RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...THE FOLLOWING RIVERS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE PAST WEEK:  THE NORTH...
MIDDLE AND SOUTH FABIUS RIVERS...THE NORTH RIVER...THE CUIVRE
RIVER...THE MIDDLE FORK SALT RIVER...THE MISSOURI RIVER...THE MOREAU
RIVER...THE MARIES RIVER...THE MERAMEC RIVER... THE BOURBEUSE
RIVER...AND DARDENNE CREEK.

THE CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ON ALL ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  THIS IS DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS.  AND WHILE NOVEMBER
WAS RELATIVELY DRY...OCTOBER WAS THE WETTEST ON RECORD IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

ON THE LARGER RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS...STREAMFLOWS ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.  THIS IS ALSO DUE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL IN THE UPSTREAM AREAS OF BOTH
BASINS.  WHILE RECENT WARM WEATHER SINCE MID-JANUARY HAS ALREADY
MELTED SOME OF THE UPSTREAM SNOWPACK...COLDER WEATHER THIS WEEK HAS
PRESERVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ALONG BOTH BASINS.  WHILE THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH OF KEOKUK
IOWA...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE.  IN THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN NORTH OF OMAHA...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE...WITH MORE THAN EIGHT INCHES
INDICATED IN A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN IOWA.  WHEN THIS
SNOWPACK MELTS...IT WILL LIKELY REPRESENT PURE RUNOFF FOR THE
MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS.

AREA LAKES HAVE LITTLE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE FROM THIS EXPECTED
RUNOFF.  AT MARK TWAIN LAKE...THE NORMAL POOL IS 606 FEET.  THIS
MORNING`S POOL READING WAS 612.2 FEET.  AT LAKE CARLYLE...THE NORMAL
POOL DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS IS 443 FEET.  TODAY`S POOL
READINGS ARE AROUND 445.7...AND RISING.  THE CORPS IS KEEPING THE
OUTLFOW FROM THIS DAM AT CLOSE TO ITS MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE DISCHARGE...
WHICH KEEPS THE KASKASKIA RIVER BELOW THE DAM IN MINOR FLOOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS CALL FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS IN THE 6 TO 10 OUTLOOK... WITH BETTER CHANCES OF ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS IN THE 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOKS.  FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...THE OUTLOOK IS CALLING
FOR NEAR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION.  SIMILARLY THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK
FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL INDICATES THOSE SAME EQUAL CHANCES FOR
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE ST. LOUIS SERVICE AREA.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING WEATHER, WATER AND CLIMATE
REFER TO THE FOLLOWING INTERNET SITES...ALL LOWER CASE.

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/WATERWATCH
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER NEAR
EWING HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11.0 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 14.8 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FEBRUARY 1 - MAY 1, 2010

LOCATION        FS    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING          11.0   8.6  9.6 10.3 10.6 11.8 12.2 13.3 14.8 16.6

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING          12.0   8.1  9.7 10.3 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.8 15.0 16.9

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR          9.5   7.2  8.1  8.8  9.7 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.8

NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA        13.0   8.5  9.3 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.8 15.5 16.8

SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON     19.0   9.4  9.7  9.9 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.7 13.7

CUIVRE RIVER
TROY           21.0  15.9 17.0 17.9 19.4 21.0 22.6 24.4 25.0 26.5
OLD MONROE     24.0  21.8 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.9 27.8 28.9 29.3

LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY         22.0  16.0 17.8 19.9 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.0 26.6

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD 20   14.0  13.6 15.1 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.0 22.2
QUINCY         17.0  16.5 18.2 19.0 19.5 20.8 21.6 22.9 24.5 26.4
QUINCY LD 21   17.0  15.4 17.1 17.8 18.2 19.5 20.3 21.6 23.3 25.5
SAVERTON LD 22 16.0  14.9 17.0 17.8 19.1 19.8 20.7 22.4 23.4 25.6
LOUISIANA      15.0  15.6 17.1 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.5 22.1 23.0 24.7
CLARKSVILLE 24 25.0  25.5 27.0 27.5 28.7 29.6 30.6 32.5 33.4 35.0
WINFIELD LD 25 26.0  25.2 27.3 27.9 29.2 30.2 31.2 32.5 33.3 35.0

MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE     12.0   5.5  8.2  9.0 10.1 11.4 12.5 13.3 14.6 17.5
SULLIVAN       15.0   7.6 10.6 11.8 13.3 14.2 15.2 16.7 18.9 21.3
PACIFIC        15.0   8.3  9.4 11.3 14.2 15.4 16.5 17.7 19.7 22.2
EUREKA         18.0  10.8 13.1 14.7 16.4 18.2 19.9 21.8 26.4 29.8

BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION          15.0   9.9 10.8 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.8 16.5 18.1 20.5

BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE    16.0  10.8 13.1 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.6 19.8 21.3 23.4

KASKASKIA RIVER
VANDALIA       18.0  19.2 20.4 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.4 23.9 24.6 26.1
CARLYLE  TW    23.5  22.3 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.5

GASCONADE RIVER
RICH FOUNTAIN  20.0   8.3 11.3 13.1 14.4 16.6 17.5 18.2 19.9 21.1

MARIES RIVER
WESTPHALIA     10.0   5.2  6.4  7.4  8.4  9.4 10.2 10.7 12.2 15.8

MOREAU RIVER
JEFFERSON CITY 17.0  18.0 18.8 19.6 22.6 23.3 24.7 25.4 26.9 28.2

NOTE: CARLYLE TAILWATER VALUES SHOULD ALL BE PRECEEDED BY A /4/
SO THAT FOR EXAMPLE FLOOD STAGE OF 23.5 ACTUALLY READS 423.5


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE NORTH FABIUS RIVER AT
EWING HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 3.5
FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FEBRUARY 1 - MAY 1, 2010


LOCATION        FS    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
NORTH FABIUS RIVER
EWING          11.0   4.0  3.9  3.8  3.8  3.7  3.6  3.6  3.5  3.5

MIDDLE FABIUS RIVER
EWING          12.0   3.2  3.1  3.0  3.0  2.9  2.9  2.8  2.8  2.8

SOUTH FABIUS RIVER
TAYLOR          9.5   2.1  2.0  1.9  1.8  1.8  1.7  1.7  1.6  1.6

NORTH RIVER
PALMYRA        13.0   4.3  4.3  4.2  4.2  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.1  4.0

SALT RIVER
NEW LONDON     19.0   5.5  5.5  5.5  3.4  3.1  2.8  2.7  2.5  2.5

CUIVRE RIVER
TROY           21.0   6.7  6.5  6.4  6.3  6.2  6.1  6.0  6.0  5.9
OLD MONROE     24.0  13.6 12.9 12.5 12.3 11.9 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.2

LA MOINE RIVER
RIPLEY         22.0   6.4  6.1  5.9  5.8  5.7  5.5  5.3  5.2  5.0

MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CANTON LD 20   14.0   5.6  5.1  4.8  4.5  4.1  3.9  3.6  3.5  3.2
QUINCY         17.0  12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0
QUINCY LD 21   17.0   6.3  5.7  5.4  5.1  4.7  4.5  4.2  4.1  3.8
SAVERTON LD 22 16.0   7.2  6.6  6.4  6.0  5.7  5.5  5.1  5.0  4.8
LOUISIANA      15.0  12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7
CLARKSVILLE 24 25.0  17.7 16.9 16.5 16.3 15.8 15.4 15.0 14.8 14.6
WINFIELD LD 25 26.0  17.5 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.5

MERAMEC RIVER
STEELVILLE     12.0   2.4  2.3  2.2  2.2  2.1  2.1  2.1  2.0  1.9
SULLIVAN       15.0   3.4  3.4  3.3  3.1  3.1  3.0  2.9  2.8  2.6
PACIFIC        15.0   0.6  0.4  0.2  0.1  0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
EUREKA         18.0   3.3  3.2  3.1  3.0  2.9  2.9  2.8  2.7  2.5

BOURBEUSE RIVER
UNION          15.0   1.8  1.7  1.6  1.6  1.5  1.4  1.4  1.3  1.2

BIG RIVER
BYRNESVILLE    16.0   3.2  3.1  3.0  2.9  2.8  2.7  2.5  2.4  2.3

KASKASKIA RIVER
VANDALIA       18.0  11.3 10.0  8.4  7.3  6.2  5.3  4.7  4.0  3.6
CARLYLE  TW    23.5  20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.3 17.8 16.5 13.5

NOTE: CARLYLE TAILWATER VALUES SHOULD ALL BE PRECEEDED BY A /4/
SO THAT FOR EXAMPLE FLOOD STAGE OF 23.5 ACTUALLY READS 423.5


VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/STLOUIS FOR MORE WEATHER
AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 19TH...AND AGAIN ON MARCH
5TH...AND PERHAPS LATER IN MARCH IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

FUCHS
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
