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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

000
FGUS73 KPAH 271532
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-
181-185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-
035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-
177-219-221-225-233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-
207-223-151200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
933 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE OHIO RIVER AT NEWBURGH HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 38 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS AROUND A 95
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID 1/20/2010 - 4/20/2010

LOCATION     FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------ ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD     20   18.9 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.6 23.8 25.0 26.7 27.8
MURPHYSBORO   22   18.6 20.4 21.4 22.7 24.5 26.0 27.2 29.6 33.0


         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                 VALID 1/25/2010 - 4/25/2010

LOCATION      FS(FT)   95%   90%   75%   50%   25%   10%    5%
--------      ------   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---   ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO      40     33.9  34.8  36.1  39.9  42.6  44.8  45.3
NEWBURGH LOWER 38     37.9  39.1  40.6  43.5  45.2  46.8  47.2
EVANSVILLE     42     33.6  35.7  36.6  41.0  43.3  44.2  44.9
MOUNT VERNON   35     32.2  34.1  35.2  39.8  42.9  44.7  45.7
JT MYERS LOWER 37     35.0  36.0  39.0  42.5  46.1  48.5  48.8
SHAWNEETOWN    33     32.5  33.6  37.7  42.0  46.8  49.5  49.8
GOLCONDA       40     35.2  36.0  37.9  40.3  44.8  47.7  48.7

GREEN RIVER
PARADISE      380    380.2 381.2 384.2 387.4 392.9 397.7 400.9
CALHOUN        23     17.3  18.9  20.3  23.3  26.9  31.2  33.7
SPOTTSVILLE           20.7  21.1  24.0  27.5  31.6  34.8  40.4

WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY    15     13.2  15.5  16.4  18.3  19.5  20.3  20.5

PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON      18     13.0  14.2  15.5  18.9  20.3  22.1  22.8

LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI          27     21.1  23.2  25.5  28.3  33.1  34.9  35.0

SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY     15      8.7   9.5  10.6  12.7  17.9  20.6  21.1


THE NEW YEAR STARTED OFF COLD. DAILY HIGHS STRUGGLED INTO THE
20S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. MANY PARTS OF THE REGION
SAW THEIR FIRST SNOW AROUND THE 7TH WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING
1 TO 3 INCHES. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION HAS
FALLEN SO FAR FOR THE MONTH. THIS IS WITHIN ONE-HALF INCH OF
NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AVERAGE LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS
WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH. SOME AREAS ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND TENNESSEE BORDERS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE
INCH OF LIQUID. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR FEBRUARY 3
THROUGH FEBRUARY 9...CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME...NORMAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEGREES AND NORMAL
TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN SEVEN-
AND NINE-TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY
THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPTATION. THE TERM
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS MEANS THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

AS HYDROLOGIC MODELS ARE CALIBRATED AT VARIOUS RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS...THAT SERVE THE WFO PADUCAH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS...MORE AND MORE FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ADDED TO THIS PRODUCT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$

LAMM