Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
155 PM MST SUN MAR 13 2016

...FLOOD RISK IS NEAR AVERAGE FOR ALL OF ARIZONA...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ARIZONA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS NEAR AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT MOST OF THE SNOW PACK HAS MELTED AND
THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS LOW FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH. EVEN THOUGH EL NINO IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...THE LATEST
THREE MONTH CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THROUGH APRIL INTO MAY. HOWEVER...
THIS OUTLOOK WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NORMALLY DRIER SPRING MONTHS.

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 1...WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT ARIZONA.

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FROM OCTOBER 2015 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2016 WAS
100 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SALT-VERDE RIVER BASIN...100 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE FOR THE GILA BASIN...110 PERCENT FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO
BASIN. FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
BASINS...RANGING 35 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SALT-VERDE RIVER BASIN
TO 45 PERCENT IN THE GILA RIVER BASIN...AND 35 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER BASIN.

STREAMFLOW RATES IN FEBRUARY WERE AROUND 55 PERCENT OF MEDIAN IN THE
SALT-VERDE...50 PERCENT IN THE GILA...AND GENERALLY 225 PERCENT IN
THE LITTLE COLORADO.

MODELED SOIL MOISTURE STATES WERE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WATER YEAR. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED THROUGH THE
WINTER MONTHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO PRECIPITATION
EVENTS.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SEASONAL PRECIPITATION TO DATE...
   NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
CURRENT RESERVOIR STORAGE...
   BELOW NORMAL
MONTHLY RUNOFF FORECAST...
   BELOW NORMAL
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
   ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION


PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...
   2016 WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 2015 THRU FEBRUARY 2016)

   BASIN / REGION                 SEASONAL PRECIP
                                PERCENT OF AVERAGE

   UPPER GILA                         100
   SALT                               100
   VERDE                              100
   LITTLE COLORADO                    110
   NORTHWEST ARIZONA                   98


PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...
  OCT 1 2015 THRU FEB 29 2016...

STATION           CURRENT   AVERAGE

  AGUILA            2.40     3.96
  COOLIDGE          4.01     4.35
  DOUGLAS           2.45     3.94
  FLAGSTAFF        11.36     9.50
  PAYSON           10.93     9.80
  PHOENIX           2.48     3.94
  TUCSON            4.59     4.19
  WINSLOW           3.30     2.58

SNOW PACK SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
  AS REPORTED MARCH 1 2016 BY NRCS

  BASIN / REGION                   PERCENT OF
                                     MEDIAN
  SALT RIVER                           20
  VERDE RIVER                          43
  LITTLE COLORADO RIVER                41
  SAN FRANCISCO - UPPER GILA RIVER     19
  CHUSKA MOUNTAINS                     84
  CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM                 41
  SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS                  66
  STATEWIDE                            44

SOIL CONDITIONS...

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS FOR ARIZONA SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF ARIZONA.

RESERVOIRS...
  AS OF MARCH 5 2016 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED

RESERVOIR/SYSTEM       PERCENT     VOLUME IN
                         FULL       ACRE-FT
   LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
      LYMAN LAKE          36          10900
   COLORADO RIVER
      LAKE POWELL         46       11209000    MAR 4
      LAKE MEAD           40       10318000    MAR 4
      LAKE MOHAVE         92        1670700    MAR 4
      LAKE HAVASU         91         563500    MAR 4
   BILL WILLIAMS RIVER
       ALAMO LAKE          M              M
   SALT RIVER
       SALT SYSTEM        59        1174267
   VERDE RIVER
       VERDE SYSTEM       51         146567
   AGUA FRIA RIVER
       LAKE PLEASANT      92         783096
   GILA RIVER
       SAN CARLOS         13         110100
       PAINTED ROCK        M              M

CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS...
  AS OF MARCH 1 2016

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LITTLE COLORADO...STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE STATE
ARE CURRENTLY BELOW LONG-TERM MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER BASIN                   PERCENT OF LONG-TERM MEDIAN

  GILA                                 50
  SALT-VERDE                           55
  LITTLE COLORADO                     225

SPECIFIC SNOWMELT PEAK FLOW FORECASTS...

                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------      --   ---   ----   ----    ---
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
  LYMAN LK, ABV, ST. JOHNS, NR    MAR-JUN    5.1    85   12.5   1.65    6.0
ZUNI RIVER
  BLACK ROCK RES, ABV             MAR-MAY   0.20    87    2.0   0.01   0.23
CHEVELON CK
  WINSLOW, NR, WILDCAT CYN, BLO   MAR-MAY    8.3    60     38   0.82   13.9
GILA RIVER
  GILA, NR                        MAR-MAY     36   106     80     23     34
  VIRDEN, NR, BLUE CK, BLO        MAR-MAY     45   105     88     28     43
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
  GLENWOOD, NR                    MAR-MAY   14.7    97     28    9.5   15.2
  CLIFTON                         MAR-MAY     36    95     69   15.2     38
GILA RIVER
  SOLOMAN, NR, HEAD OF SAFFORD V  MAR-MAY     85    96    145     49     89
  SAN CARLOS RES, COOLIDGE DAM,   MAR-MAY     47    89    148   19.2     53
SALT RIVER
  ROOSEVELT, NR                   MAR-MAY    210    88    320     75    240
  ROOSEVELT, NR, GUN CK, ABV      MAR-MAY     20    91     85    2.7     22
VERDE RIVER
  BLO TANGLE CK, ABV HORSEHOE DA  MAR-MAY     93    87    270     28    107

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

****************************************************************************

FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION INCLUDING MORE DETAILED FORECAST
INFORMATION...BASIN CONDITION GRAPHICS...AND FORECAST EVOLUTION
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE CBRFC ONLINE WATER SUPPLY
PUBLICATION AT:

WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/WSUP/PUB2/MAP/HTML/CPUB.PHP
(ALL LOWER CASE)

NWS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...

LONG RANGE WEATHER FOR MARCH...APRIL...MAY...
   EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
      ALL OF ARIZONA
   ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
      ALL OF ARIZONA.

$$

MEYERS



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