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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

000
FGUS75 KPUB 011207
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-110700-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
507 AM MST MON FEB 01 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 3.4 FEET.

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID  1/28/2010 - 5/27/2010

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE           5  2.8  3.1  3.2  3.2  3.2  3.3  3.4  3.4  3.5
SALIDA              8  3.9  4.1  4.2  4.4  4.5  4.6  4.8  5.1  5.3
WELLSVILLE          9  5.2  5.4  5.6  5.7  5.9  6.1  6.2  6.4  6.6
PARKDALE            9  4.2  4.5  4.6  4.8  4.9  5.1  5.5  5.7  6.1
CANON CITY          9  7.0  7.3  7.5  7.7  7.8  8.0  8.3  8.6  8.9
PORTLAND            9  3.7  4.2  4.4  4.6  4.6  5.0  5.2  5.8  6.6
PUEBLO              8  3.9  4.2  4.4  4.8  5.2  5.4  6.1  6.4  7.5
AVONDALE            7  3.1  3.4  3.6  4.0  4.6  5.1  5.7  6.3  9.3
NEPESTA          16.5 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.4
FOWLER              8  3.3  3.6  3.8  4.1  4.4  5.1  5.4  6.1  8.2
ROCKY FORD         10  2.7  2.9  3.1  3.2  3.4  3.9  4.2  4.6  6.0
LA JUNTA           10  7.9  8.3  8.5  9.0  9.3  9.6 10.1 10.4 11.7
LAMAR              11  5.8  6.2  6.9  7.3  7.4  7.7  7.9  8.2  9.5

FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS    8  2.5  2.6  2.6  2.9  3.1  3.2  3.4  3.8  4.4
FOUNTAIN            8  4.2  4.5  4.6  4.9  5.1  5.2  5.4  5.8  6.6
PINON               7  2.7  2.8  3.0  3.2  3.4  3.4  3.7  4.1  5.6
PUEBLO             10  4.5  4.6  4.8  5.0  5.1  5.1  5.3  5.5  6.4

ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND           12  3.9  4.5  4.7  5.2  5.8  6.6  7.2  8.4 14.5

PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID              7  3.3  3.4  3.4  3.5  3.6  3.7  3.8  3.9  4.5
TRINIDAD LAKE      10  5.8  6.0  6.3  6.3  6.4  6.4  6.5  6.6  6.8
TRINIDAD           11  2.6  2.8  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.0  3.0  3.3  4.0
LAS ANIMAS          9  3.7  4.5  4.9  5.1  5.7  6.4  7.4  8.0 10.0

TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IN JANUARY.  THE PRIMARY
OBSERVATION SITES AT PUEBLO...COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE
1.0...2.6 AND 4.0 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.

PRECIPITATION IN JANUARY WAS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO.  THE PRIMARY SITES AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS
WERE 0.13...0.16 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY.  THE PRIMARY
SITE AT ALAMOSA WAS 0.40 INCHES ABOVE AVERAGE.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT THE END OF JANUARY...AND A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE
ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 91 PERCENT OF AVERAGE SNOWPACK AT THE END OF
JANUARY.  IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
REPORTED 111 PERCENT OF AVERAGE SNOWPACK.

STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AT
THE END OF JANUARY.  SOIL MOISTURE WAS ALSO GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE.

AT THE END OF DECEMBER...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS RUNNING NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.  IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 101
PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.  IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 93 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE...OR BELOW AVERAGE.

...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.  BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.  THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$

LW