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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1133 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY.  AN UPR TROF
WL BE OVR THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND WL MOVE INTO WRN CO BY EVENING
AND THEN WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF...W TO SW WINDS SFC WINDS WL INCREASE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
BEING BREEZY TO WINDY.  DEW POINT FORECAST IS A BIT DIFFICULT...BUT
WL LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR FORECAST WHICH IS DRIER THAN THE NAM12 AND
THE RAP13.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ERN AREAS AND AROUND
NORMAL FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR BACA AND
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
MIN RH VALUES AND WINDS MAY MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND OVER SRN EL PASO
COUNTY WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRY...AND THUS WL ADD THESE AREAS TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING.

BY LATE MORNING THERE WL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
THE MTS...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE CONTDVD.  PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD THEN INCREASE OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO KS WITH THE SERN PLAINS
REMAINING DRY. THE NAM12 HAS SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE DEW POINTS IN THE NAM
ARE TOO HIGH.  HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS WL LIKELY BE...SO WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS IN THAT AREA.  SPC
HAS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
TODAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE OVR AND NR THE HIGH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN
PLAINS. SFC WINDS THIS EVENING WL BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY MOST AREAS
AND THEN WL BECOME MORE NWRLY BY LATE NIGHT.  MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY BY LATE NIGHT...BUT THE CENTRAL MTS WL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOL AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...ALONG WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEEPS THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY HIGH BASED
STORMS WITH CONTINUED INVERTED V PROFILES...SAVE THE FAR SE PLAINS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN
KANSAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINFALL ALONG WITH ANOTHER LATE SEASON SHOT OF HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWFALL...AS H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0C AND 4C. WITH
THAT SAID...MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE HIGH
MT VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MODERATING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW. MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST. WARMING
ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.

GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST (15G25KT) WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-227-233-
237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH