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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

000
FGUS73 KSGF 022028
ESFSGF
MOC097-105-119-145-161-169-203-209-KSC021-031128-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2010

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

      CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
        VALID FEBRUARY 02, 2010 - MAY 01, 2010

LOCATION        FS    90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------       ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

ELK RIVER
 TIFF CITY     15.0   6.5  7.7  8.5  9.4 11.0 14.7 17.3 19.3 20.6


SPRING RIVER
 CARTHAGE      10.0   4.7  5.0  5.6  6.1  6.6  8.0 10.0 11.1 12.5
 WACO          19.0   7.1  8.9 10.2 11.9 13.4 15.6 18.1 21.8 24.8
 BAXTER SPRGS  14.0   7.1  8.9  7.4  8.6 10.2 11.2 12.9 16.6 21.7


SHOAL CREEK
 JOPLIN        14.0   3.9  4.7  5.1  5.9  6.5  6.8  7.8  9.3 10.8


BIG PINEY
 FT LEONARD WD 13.0  12.2 12.9 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 16.7 17.3


GASCONADE RIVER
 HAZELGREEN    21.0   7.6  8.5 10.3 12.2 13.5 16.4 18.3 20.2 22.0
 JEROME        15.0   7.2  9.5 11.3 12.5 14.4 15.7 16.5 18.0 21.5


JAMES RIVER
 GALENA        15.0   6.0  6.5  7.2 10.1 11.5 12.1 14.8 17.0 21.1


JACKS FORK RIVER
 EMINENCE      12.0   4.1  5.3  5.6  6.5  7.3  8.7  9.8 11.5 14.5

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.


$$

TERRY