Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FGUS76 KSTO 071454
ESFSTO
CAC001>115-080300-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
652 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2014

...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA THIS
SPRING...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL BASINS
IN CALIFORNIA AND THE UPPER KLAMATH LAKE BASIN IN OREGON.  LOW
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS DUE TO PROLONGED DROUGHT AND/OR BELOW
NORMAL SNOWPACKS ARE MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS
SPRING.  WATERSHEDS IN THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO ENDURE A THIRD
CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF BELOW AVERAGE SPRING RUNOFF.

THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE SNOWPACK IS MUCH WORSE THAN AT THIS TIME
LAST YEAR.  BASED ON SNOW SENSOR MEASUREMENTS MAINTAINED BY THE
CALIFORNIA COOPERATIVE SNOW SURVEYS...THE STATEWIDE PACK STANDS
AT ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE AS OF MARCH 6, 2014.
IT WAS 57 PERCENT AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR.  ALTHOUGH SOME RELIEF
OCCURRED DURING FEBRUARY AND THE BEGINNING OF MARCH...MOST OF
THE STATE EXPERIENCED VERY DRY CONDITIONS FROM OCTOBER THROUGH
JANUARY OF THE CURRENT WATER YEAR (OCTOBER 1, 2013 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 28, 2014).  IT WILL TAKE A SERIES OF STRONG STORM
SYSTEMS TO RETURN THE SNOWPACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY APRIL 1ST
...WHICH IS THE TYPICAL TIME OF MAXIMUM SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION.
IT APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT SNOWPACKS CAN RECOVER FROM THE
CURRENT DEFICIT THIS LATE INTO THE WET SEASON. NOTE THAT
FLOODING COULD STILL RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ALONE OR
COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY APRIL.

PRECIPITATION...
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FELL ON MUCH OF THE REGION
DURING FEBRUARY 2014.  HOWEVER...THE SEASONAL ACCMULATION IS
VERY LOW FOR WATERSHEDS IN CALIFORNIA.

                   PERCENT OF AVG PCPN         PERCENT OF AVG PCPN
BASIN                 FEBRUARY 2014               WATER YEAR 2014
UPPER KLAMATH              179                           60
LOWER KLAMATH              131                           38
TRINITY                    115                           35
EEL RIVER                  104                           32
RUSSIAN                    138                           39
NAPA                       191                           58
SF BAY AREA                116                           39
UPPER SACRAMENTO           129                           44
CENTRAL SIERRA             108                           43
SOUTHERN SIERRA             62                           36
CENTRAL COAST
    SANTA CRUZ             115                           36
    PAJARO RIVER           101                           33
    SALINAS RIVER           82                           29
    SAN LUIS OBISPO        114                           41
    SANTA YNEZ              83                           35
SOUTH COAST
    SANTA BARBARA COAST     97                           40
    VENTURA LA COASTAL      98                           48
    SANTA CLARA RIVER      108                           42
    LOS ANGELES RIVER       94                           41
    SANTA ANA RIVER         59                           33
    SAN DIEGO BASIN         47                           40

SOUTH EAST DESERTS
    OWENS RIVER             86                           37
    AMARGOSA                 0                           26
    MOJAVE DESERT           56                           27
    MOJAVE RIVER             9                           34
    COLORADO RIVER           7                           43
    WHITEWATER RIVER        39                           18

SNOWPACK...
SNOW MEASUREMENTS TAKEN FROM AUTOMATED SNOW SENSORS CONFIRM THAT
CALIFORNIA`S MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK NOT ONLY HOLDS FAR LESS WATER THAN
NORMAL BUT IS FAR MORE DISMAL THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR...

               PERCENT OF AVG SNOWPACK    PERCENT OF AVG SNOWPACK
BASIN                 MARCH 1 2013             MARCH 1 2014
SAC/NRN SIERRA             58                        20
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY         66                        29
TULARE LAKE                60                        24
UPPER KLAMATH              75                        29

RESERVOIRS...
UNLIKE LAST YEAR ON FEBRUARY 28...STORAGE IN MANY OF CALIFORNIA`S
MAJOR RESERVOIRS STAND AT MUCH BELOW AVERAGE...

               PERCENT OF AVG STORAGE
RESERVOIR             FEB 28 2014
SHASTA LAKE                 50
LAKE OROVILLE               59
YUBA-BULLARDS BAR           73
AMERICAN-FOLSOM LAKE        59
STANISLAUS-NEW MELONES      75
TUOLUMNE                    71
MERCED-LAKE MCCLURE         42
SAN JOAQUIN-MILLERTON LAKE  51
KINGS-PINE FLAT             39
KERN-ISABELLA               31
UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, OR      94


RUNOFF...
THE PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS WATER YEAR ARE
REFLECTED IN THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE RUNOFF CONDITIONS FOR
FEBRUARY 28...

                 PERCENT OF AVG RUNOFF    PERCENT OF AVG RUNOFF
BASIN                 FEBRUARY 2014      OCT 1 2013-FEB 28 2014
TRINITY-SACRAMENTO          43                      32
SAN JOAQUIN                 29                      17
TULARE LAKE                 21                      22
UPPER KLAMATH               85                      68

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS...
APRIL THROUGH JULY RUNOFF FORECASTS DERIVED FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE GENERALLY MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR UPPER SACRAMENTO/WEST-SLOPE
SIERRA NEVADA WATERSHEDS AT THE 50 PERCENT EXCEEDENCE LEVEL.  THE
APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER FORECAST FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE IS ABOUT
62 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.


TO SUMMARIZE... THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL
WATERSHEDS IN CALIFORNIA TYPICALLY AFFECTED BY SPRINGTIME
SNOWMELT...AS WELL AS OTHER REGIONS IN THE STATE WHERE SNOWMELT
IS NOT A MAJOR FACTOR IN SPRINGTIME FLOODING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT DUE TO PROLONGED DRY PERIODS DURING
THE PAST YEAR...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS...AMPLE ROOM
FOR STORAGE IN MANY OF THE STATE`S LARGE RESERVOIRS ...AND MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE SPRING RUNOFF FORECASTS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

$$

CNRFC/AT
WFO STO/CM







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.