National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
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FGUS73 KTOP 291611
ESFTOP
KSC031-111-052000-


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1011 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.


THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM JAN 28 2010 TO APR 29
2010.


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT
EMPORIA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE XX.X FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.


                         ALL STAGES IN FEET


LOCATION         FS(FT)   90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------         ------   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
COTTONWOOD RIVER
 EMPORIA          20.0    6.2  7.3  8.7 10.8 14.8 16.7 18.8 20.8 25.1


NEOSHO RIVER
 AMERICUS         26.0    7.1  9.4 10.3 12.3 13.7 15.5 19.4 24.4 26.1
 EMPORIA          19.0   10.9 12.1 12.4 13.2 13.9 14.8 17.0 20.4 23.2
 NEOSHO RAPIDS    22.0    7.1  8.7  9.6 11.1 15.3 17.0 20.3 23.6 25.7
 BURLINGTON       27.0    7.1  8.5 10.8 11.5 13.3 14.0 17.2 17.8 18.8
 LEROY            23.0    5.3  7.9  9.8 11.6 12.6 15.1 16.6 18.7 23.1



$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
