Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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Service Change Notice
National Weather Service Topeka KS
715 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

To:       Subscribers:
          -Family of Services
          -NOAA Weather Wire Service
          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
          -NOAAPORT
          Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From:     John Woynick
          Hydrologic Program Manager
          WFO Topeka, KS

Subject:  New AHPS Non-Exceedance Probabilistic Outlook addition.

Effective October 21, 2014, the National Weather Service, NWS, will
implement the issuance of Non-Exceedance probabilities as part of
the current suite of AHPS Probabilistic Outlooks for most of the
currently established probabilistic forecast points. The
non-exceedance outlooks will indicate the probability of falling to
listed stage levels during the three month long valid time period.
This product is aimed at helping decision makers determine the long
range probability of low water.

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or AHPS is the modernization
of hydrology services to improve flood forecasts and water resources
information. Graphical information is available on the Internet at:
http:///water.weather.gov/ Once on the webpage you can zoom into
your respective county. To find the non-exceedance probability
graphs, select your river of interest and go to the hydrograph page
for that river location. Scroll to the bottom of the hydrograph page
and under the additional information tab, select the link titled
"How low could the river get?". To see an example of the
non-exceedance probability graph for the forecast point of the
Kansas River at Topeka go to the following link:
www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/non_exceed.php?wfo=top&gage=tpak1

Information on the Internet for these probabilistic AHPS sites can
include:

- Graphs showing current and forecast stage/reservoir pool heights
_ Graphs showing chances or probabilities of exceeding certain
  stage/reservoir pool heights.
- Graphs showing chances or probabilities of falling to certain
  stage/reservoir pool inflows
- A map showing the location of the gages and FEMA National Flood
  Hazard Levels.

The National Weather Service welcomes public feedback. If you have
any questions or comments please contact:

      John Woynick
      Hydrologic Program Manager
      National Weather Service Forecast Office
      1116 NE Strait Ave, Topeka, KS 66616

      Phone: 785-232-1493
      email: john.woynick@noaa.gov

$$








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