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Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-063-
065-073-075-081-085-087-091-093-101-105>127-133-101200-


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...NEAR NORMAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...


HISTORICALLY FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS
IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL.

FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...CURRENT STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL.
THEREFORE THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE
MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH
APRIL.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW
FORECASTS.  THESE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER
FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 3RD ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR IS AVERAGING
BETWEEN SEVEN AND TWELVE INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON THE CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...PRIMARILY BASED ON CLIMATE MODELS RATHER
THAN ENSO.  SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER (SERFC) ISSUES A VARIETY OF
PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER
RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY TWO
TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.


&&

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...

    WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC
       (ALL LOWERCASE)

AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL WEB PAGE AT:

    WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX
      (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT
ROGER MCNEIL...SERVICE HYDROLOGIST...AT 205-664-3010 OR BY
E-MAIL AT ROGER.MCNEIL@NOAA.GOV .

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BMX
                  (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
                   (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGE
                   (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR THE USGS WATER WATCH SITE...GO TO:
         HTTP://AL.WATER.USGS.GOV
              (ALL LOWERCASE)

$$


















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