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2 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles ESE Efay AR
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...VERY LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A STRONG CELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS.

A MORE DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. TOPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTERACTING WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-160500-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1016 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.NOW...

AT 10:16 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST CORNER OF BENTON COUNTY IN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE ALSO OCCURRING OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY IN FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AT AROUND
25 MPH.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OCCUR FURTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AVERAGE
HOURLY RAINFALL OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

$$





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