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2 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles ESE Efay AR
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
441 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
 RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-44.
    ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF I-44. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND UP TO 70 MPH. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS. ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASED WITH
THE EARLY WEEK STORMS AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

69



Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-040100-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NOW...

AT 6:11 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO
DETECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WERE LOCATED WITHIN SEQUOYAH AND NORTHERN PITTSBURG
COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST...AROUND 25 MILES PER HOUR.

THROUGH 8:00 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

$$

16




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