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2 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles ESE Efay AR
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EAST OF AN OKEMAH TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...POSING A
LIMITED HAIL AND GUSTY WIND RISK. THE MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN A BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL...LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021515-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
846 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.NOW...

AT 8:46 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THROUGH 10:15 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DURANT OKLAHOMA TO
BENTONVILLE ARKANSAS. AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM ONE TENTH
TO ONE QUARTER INCH WILL BE COMMON FOR AFFECTED AREAS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND MAY
EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS MORNING
REMAINS LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

$$







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