Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
421 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-250930-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
421 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 /321 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. A SWATH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A CLOSE PASS TO
THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TALLAHASSEE TO VALDOSTA. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS VERY LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY...TO LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FROST. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MUCH CLOSER ALLOWING FOR
LIGHTER WINDS AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...EVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST OVER EXPOSED
FIELDS AND NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CASE THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST OR EVEN SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES BECOMES MORE LIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE DETAILS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE BEFORE THEN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING A PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA. KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN CASE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

$$

14-MROCZKA