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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
431 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-010100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
431 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIA INTO THIS
EVENING.

DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR FROM LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
SOUTH TO OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ORLANDO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
TOWARD OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO TWO
TO THREE INCHES.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
TO ROADWAYS...AND LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP. SMALLER CREEKS
AND RIVERS ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS MAY SEE RAPID RISES OF WATER
WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 45 MPH.
STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MAINLAND
AND MOVING TOWARD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KNOTS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL. REMEMBER TO SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND DO NOT SWIM ALONE.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
INTO TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIVER.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR FURTHER RISES POSSIBLY TO ACTION STAGE IF HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE AND NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A STALLING FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES OR
OBSERVED FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AT
3 2 1 2 5 5 0 2 1 2.

$$

VOLKMER






Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
638 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-301330-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
638 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.NOW...THROUGH 930 AM...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT PROPAGATE FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO ACROSS
FLORIDA.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
AND MAY BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA. A FEW STRONGER CELLS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

TES





Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-010100-
/O.CON.KMLB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-141001T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...
VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...
DAYTONA BEACH...CLERMONT...TITUSVILLE
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LAKE...
  ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA...OSCEOLA...BREVARD...
  INDIAN RIVER...ST. LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
  CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
  TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH
  SOME LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
  SAME AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR FROM LAKE
  AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SOUTH TO OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES INCLUDING
  THE ORLANDO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE
  FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH TOWARD OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
  COUNTIES. ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST
  SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD
  TOWARD THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
  EVENING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO TWO TO
  THREE INCHES.

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  TO ROADWAYS...AND LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS THAT
  HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BE
  ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP.
  SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS MAY SEE
  RAPID RISES OF WATER WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE
  POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

$$

VOLKMER






Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR TO RISE TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS COULD CAUSE FURTHER RISES...
INCREASING THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
THE RIVER.

FLC069-127-012012-
/O.CON.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0300Z.140930T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

*AT 3.2 FEET, WATER SURROUNDS MANY LOW LYING HOMES NEAR THE RIVER.
WATER COVERS MANY YARDS AND LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE RIVER.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 7 AM EST/8AM EDT
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   TUE    WED    THU    FRI    SAT

ST. JOHNS RIVER
 ASTOR       2.8   2.9  MON 03 PM   3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9

&&

LAT...LON  2910 8142 2935 8157 2932 8169 2908 8150

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

JRC/AJC








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