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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-020900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
500 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH OTHER RIVERS
AROUND ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE
BASINS TODAY WILL ONLY EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS AVAILABLE ON WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS
OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF WATER LEVELS AND
BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED. SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS AVAILABLE ON
WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER TODAY AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

$$

MCMICHAEL





Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND RUNOFF FROM THE CONSTANT RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP LOCAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC057-021450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-141006T0300Z/
/LITF1.2.ER.140927T2255Z.140929T0145Z.141005T2100Z.NO/
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET
* THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15 FEET...ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640
  BRIDGE BEGIN FLOODING.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE
  ROAD 640 ARE COMPLETELY COVERED BY WATER. ONE HOME BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 12 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT RIVER DRIVE AND SQUIRREL RUN
  WAY DOWNSTREAM OF STATE ROAD 640.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.4 FEET ON AUG 29
  2012.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

ALAFIA
 LITHIA       13  15.5  WED 10 AM  14.8   14.1   13.7   13.2   12.7


&&


LAT...LON 2787 8218 2784 8228 2789 8228 2792 8218




$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA
HEAD...THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE PEACE
RIVER AT ARCADIA...AND THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA...

.THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY...HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND RUNOFF FROM THE CONSTANT RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP LOCAL RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC057-021450-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-141003T0112Z/
/WIMF1.2.ER.140928T0058Z.140929T0745Z.141002T1912Z.NO/
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR
  THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.2 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13 FEET...THE CANOE RENTAL AREA FLOODS.
* IMPACT...AT 11 FEET...THE RIVER OVERFLOWS ITS BANKS.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.3 FEET ON SEP 26
  2013.

&&


             FLD   OBSERVED         FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY  TIME   THU    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON

LITTLE MANATEE
 WIMAUMA      11  13.2  WED 10 AM  11.7   10.2    9.3    8.4    8.1


&&


LAT...LON 2763 8231 2764 8243 2770 8243 2770 8231




$$



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