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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
943 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030245-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
943 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THURSDAY MORNING AS THAT FRONT BEGINS
TO STALL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IF THESE STORMS CAN MANAGE
TO DEVELOP...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH FROM A
FEW OF THE STORMS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS BOWING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OR ANY SUPERCELLS MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADOES LOOKS LIMITED AT
THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS THE OZARKS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THAT FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL THEN BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER 4 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN/DSA





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