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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-220915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
405 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma, and western
north Texas. A Slight and Marginal risk cover much of the rest of
the area.

Location...
The Enhanced risk is near and southeast of a line from Medford
and Fairview, to Clinton and Altus Oklahoma, to Crowell and
Seymour Texas. This includes places like Ponca City, Enid, Lawton,
Oklahoma City Metro, Ada, and Ardmore Oklahoma, and Wichita Falls
Texas. The Slight and Marginal risks are west of the Enhanced
risk and southeast of a line from Buffalo to Arnett Oklahoma.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts to around 80 mph and large hail up to the size
of tennis balls are the primary concerns. There is a low potential
for tornadoes across portions of central and southern Oklahoma,
and western north Texas.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 3 pm to 2 am.
The most likely time for a tornado, if a tornado occurs, will be
from 3 pm to 9 pm.

Discussion...
A strong upper system and a cold front are expected to affect the
region today and tonight. Storms are expected to initially develop
near the cold front this afternoon from parts of northern into
western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will then continue to develop as
the cold front moves across the area this evening and overnight.
These storms are expected to form into one or more lines fairly
rapidly. Initially large hail up to the size of golf balls and
strong wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main concerns but as the
storms develop into lines, damaging winds will become a greater
concern with wind gusts to around 80 mph possible.

Other more discrete storms could develop in parts of southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas later this afternoon near a
surface low, the front, and dryline. Large hail up to the size of
tennis balls and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main concerns
with these storms. However, there will also be a low potential for
a tornado or two with these storms. Eventually, these storms are
expected to merge into line segments as well, with the damaging
wind potential becoming a greater concern. The tornado potential
is expected to decrease later this evening.

The potential for severe storms will decrease overnight but
thunderstorms will remain possible through early Sunday.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms may linger in parts of southeast Oklahoma
Sunday morning before exiting the area.

.Cold/Frost...
Patchy frost and near freezing temperatures may be possible across
portions of Oklahoma late next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$




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