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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1212 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK EXTENDS FROM EAST OF KNOX CITY TO SOUTH OF
VERNON TO WICHITA FALLS TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT... TO NORMAN... TO HOLDENVILLE OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ENHANCED RISK.

TIMING...
NOON TO MIDNIGHT

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND 60 TO 70 MPH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONALLY... LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW A DRYLINE TO MIX
EASTWARD... FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL
ALLOW CONTINUAL TRANSPORT OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR THE PRODUCTION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
BOTH THE DRYLINE AND THE STALLED FRONT... WHICH MAY BEGIN A SLOW
RETREAT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL GROWTH... AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AS AN AREA OF BACKED SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT... WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE STORMS... AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE PROLONGED RAINFALL
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY SEE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY...
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE... WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. RAIN IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN DURING
THE DAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE EVER
INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME... AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL... AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA... APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

AUSTIN/KURTZ




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