Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC005-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-061-063-069-077-079-087-
091-099-101-121-123-125-127-133-135-137-211200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0199.130521T0500Z-130521T1200Z/

OK
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                CADDO               CARTER
CLEVELAND            COAL                COMANCHE
COTTON               GARVIN              GRADY
HASKELL              HUGHES              JOHNSTON
LATIMER              LE FLORE            MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH             MURRAY              MUSKOGEE
PITTSBURG            PONTOTOC            POTTAWATOMIE
PUSHMATAHA           SEMINOLE            SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS
$$


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
945 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CALVIN TO SULPHUR TO
HENRIETTA TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MORRISON TO SEWARD TO YUKON TO LAWTON TO SEYMOUR TEXAS...COVERING
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST TO THE MODERATE RISK.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN ON GOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS. ELEVATED ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS...HOWEVER...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. ONGOING STORMS HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF
80 MPH WINDS AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN TO CONTINUE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM NORTHEASTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ONGOING STORMS REMAIN
ROOTED TO THIS BOUNDARY...AS IT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIND FIELDS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
CONTINUED TRAINING OF STORMS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING OF CREEKS...
SMALL STREAMS...AND ROAD WAYS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

$$

KURTZ