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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015


...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONGOING SURFACE HEATING
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
..AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.


EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2
INCHES. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED IN LOCATIONS WHERE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURED.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
TEMPER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOME DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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