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2 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles SSE Tulsa OK
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
914 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EAST OF AN OKEMAH TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.

MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...POSING A
LIMITED HAIL AND GUSTY WIND RISK. THE MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN A BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL...LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021730-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1114 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.NOW...

AT 11:14 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED RECENTLY...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED FURTHER TO THE
WEST NEAR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THROUGH 12:30 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A BOSWELL
OKLAHOMA TO PETTIGREW ARKANSAS LINE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE COMMON WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

$$








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