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2 products issued by NWS for: 4 Miles NNE Sportsmen Acres OK
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
102 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
102 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018



This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma
ONSET...Late Afternoon or evening.


HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Tonight.


SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.



DISCUSSION...
Much of the thunderstorm activity has pushed off to the northeast as
of early afternoon. However, scattered showers along with a few
thunderstorms will remain possible possible through the afternoon
as a very moist airmass remains across the region. Low chances for
a few severe thunderstorms will exist later today and evening across
northeast Oklahoma with cold front that will linger just to the
northwest. The marginal severe weather chances will extend into
the overnight hours as the low level jet increases. The main
threat from any severe storm would be large hail. While less of a
severe threat is expected further south and east, storms across
southeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas overnight will
be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.

South winds will remain breezy through the day and into tonight with
frequent gusts over 30 mph likely.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Several rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity are
expected throughout the week, with the first round of significant
rainfall expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as the cold front
begins to push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas with
around 1 to 3 inches of rain possible as these locations will be
within a deep moist axis.


A period of light freezing rain will be possible across parts of
northeast Oklahoma late Tuesday night into early Wednesday
precipitation that lingers before temperatures rise above
freezing. There still remains uncertainty concerning icing
potential, so stay aware of the latest forecasts.

Warmer temperatures for the latter part of the work week will
coincide with additional chances for widespread, heavy rainfall.
The deep moist axis will once again setup across southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, and additional amounts will have
the potential to create flash flooding and mainstem river
flooding by late Thursday or Friday, particularly areas that
remain saturated by the heavy rainfall earlier in the week.


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
With a very unsettled pattern in place for this week, please pay
attention to the latest updates, and includes any flash flood and
river flood watches that may be posted given the current flood
potential. Overall rain amounts and areal coverage of rainfall
will be refined with later forecasts.


weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-192045-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NOW...
At 12:44 PM...Doppler radars detected scattered rain showers
across far southeast Oklahoma and northeast Oklahoma. These
showers were moving off to the northeast at around 40 mph.

Through 2:45 PM...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible for areas of northeast Oklahoma, along and
north of an Oilton to Miami line. Activity will also move across
southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas, east of a Daisy to
Mountainburg line. Rainfall amounts of up to one tenth of an inch
will be common with this activity. Isolated locally higher amounts
to near one quarter inch will be possible in heavier downpours.

$$



U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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