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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Threat and Heavy Rainfall Late
This Afternoon into Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 5 PM Northeast Oklahoma. After 11 PM Southeast
            Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 5 PM Northeast Oklahoma. After 11 PM Southeast
    Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
An enhanced severe weather potential is forecast across much of
the region starting late this afternoon and continuing into the
overnight hours. Thunderstorms will begin to develop across
central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma along a cold front this
afternoon and spread into northeast Oklahoma during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Damaging winds to 70
mph...large hail and also a limited tornado potential will be
possible with the initial storm development.

During the evening hours...storms are expected to develop into a
squall line along the front and spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight. Severe weather will continue into
the overnight hours with the main threat transitioning to more of
a damaging wind threat. However...a limited tornado potential will
remain possible with the threat of quick spin ups along the
leading line of the east southeast moving squall line. The line of
storms is expected to push into northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma toward midnight...with the severe weather threat
diminishing after 2 am.

Widespread heavy rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range with
locally higher amounts around 3 inches and greater are also
expected with the storms through tonight. Localized flash
flooding could be possible along with the potential for some river
flooding across the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely. Persons
attending outdoor events Saturday evening should prepare for
thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Rain showers along with an isolated thunderstorm potential will
remain possible into the morning hours Sunday across parts of
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas behind the exiting cold
front. Precipitation is forecast to exit the region by Sunday
afternoon. In the wake of the departing system...a secondary push
of cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds will be possible
Tuesday with a warming trend forecast for the second half of next
week. Toward the end of the week...another low pressure system
looks to move into the Plains with a return of thunderstorm
chances to the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




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