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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
441 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING WITH DESTRUCTIVE WIND AND GIANT HAIL POSSIBLE...

...A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Critical.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...late afternoon.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...late afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
ONSET...mid afternoon.


DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system and cool front will move into northeast
Oklahoma this afternoon. Ahead of the front, unseasonably hot
conditions will develop with heat indices in the 98 to 103 degree
range across portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas.

The atmosphere will become extremely unstable ahead of the
surface low and front, with severe storms rapidly developing
across northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening. More
isolated severe storm development is possible to the south along
the dryline across southeast Oklahoma. Supercells will initially
be possible with hail to the size of softballs and destructive
winds in excess of 80 mph. A few strong tornadoes will also be
possible, especially where storms can interact with existing
boundaries, such as a potential outflow boundary from convection
north of the region.

Thunderstorms will become more linear tonight, with one or more
convective bands sweeping southeast across the remainder of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the overnight
hours. Damaging winds will become the main threat although a
limited tornado threat could persist. In addition, heavy rainfall
will be likely in the stronger storms and localized flash flooding
could become a concern.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Low thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week, with limited additional severe
weather potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather watches and warnings should be expected late this
afternoon and evening. The holiday weekend will provide numerous
outdoor exposures which will further increase the potential for a
rapid safety response. Outdoor activities may need to be cancelled
this evening, especially if you are unable to quickly move indoors
to a substantial shelter. Closely monitor the latest forecasts
and updates through the day, as the overall threats continue to be
refined.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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