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Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
716 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>003-006-010-014-017-021-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241430-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-OUACHITA-SABINE-
CALDWELL-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-
CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...
MINERAL SPRINGS...DIERKS...ASHDOWN...HOPE...PRESCOTT...
TEXARKANA...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...BRADLEY...MAGNOLIA...
EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...SPRINGHILL...
FARMERVILLE...BERNICE...MANSFIELD...STONEWALL...LOGANSPORT...
MONROE...MANY...ZWOLLE...PLEASANT HILL...CLARKS...GRAYSON...
COLUMBIA...IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...
LONE STAR...NAPLES...OMAHA...ATLANTA...LINDEN...HUGHES SPRINGS...
QUEEN CITY...MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...
BIG SANDY...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...
JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL...PINELAND
716 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NOW...
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 40
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ON
TOP OF SATURATED SOILS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PONDING ON
WATERWAYS...FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND FLASH FLOODING. USE
CAUTION NOT TO DRIVE ON ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER...TURN AROUND
DONT DROWN.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR ALL OF EAST TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE AS STRONG FORCING ALOFT SPREADS EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL FALL
OVER AREAS WHERE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH FELL EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RUNOFF...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-242130-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-150526T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...
MINERAL SPRINGS...DIERKS...ASHDOWN...HOPE...PRESCOTT...
TEXARKANA...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...BRADLEY...MAGNOLIA...
EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...SPRINGHILL...
HOMER...HAYNESVILLE...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...BERNICE...
MANSFIELD...STONEWALL...LOGANSPORT...COUSHATTA...MARTIN...
ARCADIA...RINGGOLD...GIBSLAND...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...
ZWOLLE...PLEASANT HILL...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...
MONTGOMERY...DRY PRONG...CLARKS...GRAYSON...COLUMBIA...JENA...
MIDWAY...OLLA...IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...CLARKSVILLE...BOGATA...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...
LONE STAR...NAPLES...OMAHA...ATLANTA...LINDEN...HUGHES SPRINGS...
QUEEN CITY...MINEOLA...WINNSBORO...QUITMAN...HAWKINS...GILMER...
BIG SANDY...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...
JACKSONVILLE...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...
CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL...PINELAND
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
  TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN ARKANSAS...
  COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE RIVER...
  MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER AND UNION. IN LOUISIANA...BIENVILLE...
   BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE SOTO...GRANT...
  JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
  RIVER...SABINE...UNION...WEBSTER AND WINN. IN SOUTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA...MCCURTAIN. IN TEXAS...ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...
  CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...
  MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED RIVER...RUSK...SABINE...
  SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR AND WOOD.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER SOUTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
  LOUISIANA...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
  LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
  POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...FALLING OVER ALREADY SATURATED
  GROUNDS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST WEEK.
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
  AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER
  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
  MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
  OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND
  SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO IN EXCESS OF FOUR INCHES...WITH
  THE TWO DAY STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM THREE TO SIX
  INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
  INCREASED RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

* LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
  OF RAPIDLY RISING CREEKS...WILL BE MOST PRONE TO FLASH
  FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
DO NOT CROSS MOVING WATER ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES...AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

15



Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABLIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING ALOFT AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL
FALL OVER GROUNDS THAT STILL REMAIN SATURATED FROM EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THAT FELL EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE REGION...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO IN EXCESS OF FOUR
INCHES LIKELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...AS
WELL AS RAINFALL REPORTS.

$$

15



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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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