Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
440 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
081100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
440 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SNOW AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TODAY...AND WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT MAY END WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.
$$
JPB
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-145-155-157-161-163-131200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
120 PM EST THU MARCH 6 2014
...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES THE RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RIVER RAISIN BASINS.
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH EARLY SPRING
DUE TO COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...
THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION
TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST
LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF REACHING MINOR...
MODERATE...MAJOR FLOODING AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT 90 DAYS
THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
SAGINAW RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN
TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PINE RIVER
MIDLAND 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
MIDLAND 24.0 25.0 28.0 52 15 41 9 6 <5
SHIAWASSEE RIVER
OWOSSO 7.0 9.0 10.0 >95 32 63 <5 29 <5
KEARSLEY CREEK
DAVISON 10.0 11.0 12.0 78 15 23 <5 <5 <5
FLINT RIVER
FLINT 13.0 15.0 17.0 58 6 20 <5 <5 <5
CASS RIVER
CASS CITY 14.0 18.0 20.0 46 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
VASSAR 14.0 15.0 18.0 72 9 53 <5 21 <5
FRANKENMUTH 17.0 20.0 25.0 92 20 58 <5 6 <5
SAGINAW RIVER
SAGINAW 17.0 19.0 24.0 93 38 70 15 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RIVERS
PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CLINTON RIVER
CLINTON TWP 16.0 17.0 19.0 64 16 35 <5 15 <5
MT CLEMENS 16.0 17.0 18.0 33 <5 18 <5 13 <5
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
MT CLEMENS 15.0 16.0 20.0 67 16 55 9 10 <5
ROUGE RIVER
DETROIT 15.0 18.0 20.0 78 23 30 <5 12 <5
MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER
DEARBORN HTS 10.0 11.0 12.0 63 <5 20 <5 <5 <5
LOWER ROUGE RIVER
INKSTER 10.0 12.0 14.0 78 29 27 <5 <5 <5
MILL CREEK
DEXTER 12.0 13.0 14.0 72 <5 53 <5 41 <5
HURON RIVER
HAMBURG 6.5 7.0 7.5 >95 38 90 30 56 21
ANN ARBOR 16.0 17.0 18.0 67 6 35 <5 12 <5
RIVER RAISIN
TECUMSEH 13.0 14.0 15.0 29 <5 9 <5 <5 <5
ADRIAN 18.0 19.0 20.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLISSFIELD 683.0 685.0 687.0 86 16 52 6 30 <5
DUNDEE 650.0 652.0 653.0 84 13 60 <5 49 <5
MONROE 9.0 10.0 11.0 93 13 47 <5 6 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
...PAST PRECIPITATION...
THIS PAST FALL AND WINTER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
FALL.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. RIVERS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE COVERED.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
SOIL MOISTURE WAS AVERAGE GOING INTO THE FALL AND HAS REMAINED THAT
WAY SINCE AN EARLY FROST DEPTH WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE BEGINNING OF
THE WINTER SEASON AND NO APPRECIATIVE THAWS HAVE OCCURRED. FROST
DEPTHS CONTINUE TO RANGE GENERALLY FROM TWO TO FOUR FEET.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
SNOW COVER RANGES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 20 INCHES WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES. WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER ALL TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
MARCH AND APRIL WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW, AVERAGE
OR ABOVE.
THE FURTHER INTO SPRING THE SNOW PACK AND HIGH WATER CONTENT REMAIN...
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR A QUICKER MORE SIGNIFICANT THAW. WITH THE MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW PACK AND WATER CONTENT ALONG WITH MUCH DEEPER THEN
AVERAGE FROST DEPTH...ALL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING. THE RIVER BASINS
THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONTENT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOW PACK AND THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ARE THE CASS...
SHIAWASSEE...SAGINAW...CLINTON...HURON AND RAISIN.
THE OTHER THREAT THAT IS ALSO HIGH IS FOR ICE JAMS. ALL THE RIVERS
ARE MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE ICE IS UNUSUALLY THICK. BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RAPID RISE AND INCREASE FLOW IN A
RIVER CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE JAM OR DOWNSTREAM IF AN ICE JAM
GIVES WAY ABRUPTLY. ONE CAN TELL IF AN ICE JAM IS NEARBY IF THEY
OBSERVE UNUSUAL RAPID RISE OR FALL IN A RIVER. A RAPID FALL WOULD
INDICATE A JAM UPSTREAM AND RAPID RISE A JAM DOWNSTREAM OR VICE
VERSA IF A JAM GIVES AWAY.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER
CASE).
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2014. ADDITIONAL
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE EVENT DRIVEN.
$$
DRC
Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ031-071900-
MANISTEE COUNTY...MANISTEE-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 35. SOUTH WINDS 11 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 35.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 MPH.
AT 5 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 35.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 7 PM...SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ032-071900-
WEXFORD COUNTY...CADILLAC-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 35. SOUTH WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 34.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
AT 5 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 33.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 7 PM...SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURE 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ033-071900-
MISSAUKEE COUNTY...LAKE CITY-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 35. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 34.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 33.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
AT 7 PM...SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURE 30. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ034-071900-
ROSCOMMON COUNTY...HOUGHTON LAKE-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 36. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 33. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
AT 7 PM...SNOW LIKELY. TEMPERATURE 31. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ035-071900-
OGEMAW COUNTY...WEST BRANCH-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 31. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
AT 7 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 32.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ036-071900-
IOSCO COUNTY...EAST TAWAS-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 32. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
AT 7 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 32.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ041-071900-
GLADWIN COUNTY...GLADWIN-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTH WINDS 7 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 7 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 33.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
$$
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
MIZ042-071900-
ARENAC COUNTY...STANDISH-
1200 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014
.NOW...
AT 1 PM...PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 32. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH.
AT 3 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 5 PM...MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE 34. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 MPH.
AT 7 PM...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPERATURE 33.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH.
$$
