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Hazardous Weather Outlook


Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
739 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-210145-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
739 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a risk of severe storms across portions of central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas.

Location...
A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms remains, confined south of a
line from Archer City, Texas to Ringling, Oklahoma to Lake Texoma.
A Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight Risk, extending east and
south of a line from Seymour, Texas to Mountain View, Oklahoma to
Watonga and south of Wakita to Chilocco.

Timing...
Through 2 AM.

Impacts...
Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. Hail to the
size of half dollars and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to train along a weak surface
boundary stretching across western Oklahoma into western north
Texas. Storms will continue to gradually build eastward through
tonight. Storms will maintain in a broken line, with embedded
stronger updrafts. Locally heavy rainfall, hail, and damaging
winds are the primary concerns. Severe chances will begin to
tapper beyond midnight, but the heavy rain threat will continue
overnight, especially from central Oklahoma into southern
Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk area should remain prepared for severe weather
operations through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Monday with rain
chances ending from west to east through the day. No severe
weather is expected Monday.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated to Critical wildfire conditions will be possible across
portions of the area Tuesday through Friday. The Critical
conditions are expected Thursday afternoon across portions of
western Oklahoma and western north Texas due to warm temperatures,
low humidities, and gusty southwest winds.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
658 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers with isolated thunderstorms will impact the region tonight,
with the highest chances generally over southern and eastern
Kansas. Pockets of brief heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Areas of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will exit far
eastern Kansas Monday morning.

Very high grassland fire danger is possible across the region
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are again possible Thursday night.
Severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

Finally, a wintry mix is possible late Thursday night and early
Friday across central Kansas, as colder air filters south over the
area. The greatest potential for snow accumulations appear to
remain well north of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
506 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
506 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...West of a line from Tulsa to Haskell to Poteau.
ONSET...Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...West of a line from Bartlesville to Tulsa to Hugo.
ONSET...Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread into
eastern Oklahoma by late evening with a limited risk of
severe weather arriving by midnight.  The strongest storms may
pose a risk of both locally damaging winds and hail to quarter
size.  Instability will be low across the region and storms
are likely to experience a decrease in intensity as they spread
across eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas late tonight
into Monday morning.  Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is
possible as the storms move into eastern Oklahoma before
they gradually weaken as they move eastward.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed across portions of
eastern Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...High wind and fire weather potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning with
storms moving east out the region by Monday evening.
Severe weather is not likely as instability will be low,
however locally heavy rainfall will remain possible.
Thereafter unseasonably warm and dry weather will prevail
with a period of strong winds and heightened fire weather
concerns arriving Thursday and Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
358 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
358 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a small chance for a few thunderstorms across much of
the area tonight. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday afternoon, near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across portions of the outlook area, mainly along and
west of a line from Lexington to Alma Nebraska...to Plainville
Kansas.

Although plenty of uncertainty remains in the forecast, there is
the potential for a strong system to affect the region Thursday
through Friday, bringing the chance for accumulating snowfall and
strong northerly winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
251 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
251 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected across
the area tonight mainly after 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for accumulating snow in north central Kansas
Thursday night and Friday.


&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1258 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms will be possible late tonight across far western
Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas. Occasional lightning will
be possible, but no severe storms are expected.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Monday but no severe
weather is expected.

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Areas of shallow fog will reduce visibilities in affected areas this
 morning down to 1/4 mile at times before lifting by the mid-
 morning. Rain chances will return to the area after midnight and
 persist through Monday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is
 possible, though severe weather is not anticipated. Rain totals
 will generally remain less than one quarter inch.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Additional rain showers are possible by the late week with embedded
 thunderstorm activity possible. As of now, areas north of I-70 are
 most likely to be affected. Wintry precipitation is also possible
 as the storm system exits the local area, though impacts should
 remain minimal.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201200-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
325 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 /225 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Areas of fog with visibilities around one half mile will be possible
this morning. Locally patchy dense fog is possible as well in spots.
Allow extra space when driving.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this evening
mainly east of Garden City. Threats are lightning and outflow winds
of 30 to 40 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Fog: Significant risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be an elevated to limited fire weather risk through much
of the week. Outdoor burning is discouraged. A chance of snow is forecast
Thursday and Friday with a second weather system. Chance of significant
snow accumulation is low.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Ice accumulation: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Ice accumulation: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

$$


Short Term Forecast


Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1101 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-200715-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
1101 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.NOW...
At 11:01 pm, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
band of showers and thunderstorms across central Oklahoma. These
showers and storms were moving northeast at 40 miles an hour.

Through 1 am...showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into
eastern Oklahoma to the west of Highway 75. Locally heavy rain and
possibly gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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