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Flood Warning


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...

  Black River At Pocahontas affecting Randolph County

  Black River At Black Rock affecting Independence...Jackson and
  Lawrence Counties


River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.

Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on our
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.

Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in

&&

ARC121-011620-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150405T2100Z/
/POCA4.1.ER.150313T0037Z.150318T2215Z.150404T1500Z.NO/
820 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Black River At Pocahontas.
* until Sunday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  this weekend.



&&


             Fld     Observed                 Forecast 7 AM
Location     Stg   Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun

Black River
  Pocahontas  17  18.8 Tue 08 PM   18.6   18.2   17.7   17.1   16.5


&&


LAT...LON 3612 9115 3625 9106 3630 9095 3620 9089
 3617 9098 3610 9101



$$


Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL
425 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-020000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...TROY...
LEAVENWORTH...KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...TARKIO...
ROCKPORT...MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...
BETHANY...PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...OREGON...
SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...MILAN...
GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...KINGSTON...
HAMILTON...POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA...
PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...
RICHMOND...CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY...
KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...
FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...
PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...BOONVILLE...BUTLER...
RICH HILL...CLINTON
425 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH AND VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL. AVOID OUTSIDE
BURNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
330 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
510 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS MORNING...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE ALREADY REPORTING AT LEAST SOME LIMITED
VISIBILITY. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND THE STATE BY MID MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE NATURAL STATE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
STATE FRIDAY EVENING.

BEFORE THEN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE A TORNADO RISK...WHICH WILL BE HIGHEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. ON FRIDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
 WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL
 AND GUST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
 ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/EAX/EMBRIEFING1/EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
 STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BUT A FEW
 STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH SOUTH AND EAST OF LINE FROM
 PLEASANTON... KS TO SEDALIA... MO.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/EAX/EMBRIEFING1/EMBRIEFING1.PDF

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT
WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ESPECIALLY
AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.  SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCH SIZE
HAIL.  FURTHERMORE...SHOULD SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ON THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
500 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER CATEGORY IS VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY MID MORNING ONWARD WHILE MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA ALONG A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
HIAWATHA...TO MANHATTAN AND HERINGTON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR THE AREAS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-020945-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
438 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO AVERAGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. SEE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND FRIDAY.

$$

MY/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
419 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-020000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
419 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

KANOFSKY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
416 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
416 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS AN
  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
  FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.
  THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
  STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
  HAZARDS.

  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
  FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY.

  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
  COLD FRONT.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30
  MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  THERE WILL BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
  NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

FOSTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020845-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
340 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND TWO MILES OR LESS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL
PRODUCE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FOR
TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SEVERAL HOURS OF VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND PERIODICALLY
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE FLINT HILLS
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR
TONIGHT...HOWEVER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON THURSDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

$$

JAKUB


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-012215-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR...MOSTLY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY EVENING ARE
CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE ALONG THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS OUR REGION HAVE JUST FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RIVERS ARE STILL
HIGH...SO THE UPCOMING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COULD HAVE SOME
IMPACT. IN ADDITION...THE SUBSOIL IS STILL VERY MOIST...WHICH MAY
CAUSE RAPID RUNOFF INTO THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

PERSONS IN AND NEAR FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

$$

YORK


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011315-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.NOW...

AT 7:00 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO
DETECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION HAD DECREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WAS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST...AROUND 25 MILES PER HOUR.

THROUGH 8:00 AM...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BETWEEN A
TRACE...TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

16

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE