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Flash Flood Warning


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC141-021700-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0025.141002T1255Z-141002T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 745 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
  WARNED AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
  EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ALREADY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN
  THIS AREA SINCE LATE YESTERDAY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...FLORENCE...STOVER...
  SYRACUSE AND VERSAILLES. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE BB AT GABRIEL CREEK NEAR FLORENCE...
RITCHEY ROAD AT GRAVOIS CREEK NORTHEAST OF GRAVOIS MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3868 9283 3860 9283 3845 9265
      3829 9307 3868 9307 3870 9305

$$


Flood Warning


FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood warning
for the following river in Missouri...


                 The Cuivre River near

                    ...Troy


.This Flood Warning is a result of 4 to 5 inches of rain in the past 24 hours
and close to 3 more inches of rain in the next 24 hours.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than predicted.

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information,
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.


&&

MOC113-031141-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0120.141002T1132Z-141005T0518Z/
/TRYM7.2.ER.141002T1132Z.141003T0000Z.141004T0518Z.NO/
641 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Cuivre River near Troy
* At 6 AM Thursday the stage was near 19.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river will rise above flood stage this morning and
  continue to rise to near 26.0 feet by this evening.
  The river will fall below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact:  At 25.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins...significant
  agricultural land is inundated.
* Impact:  At 24.8 feet...Near this height...Second Street in Moscow
  Mills begins flooding near the Byrd Street intersection.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Near this height, State Highway H near the
  West Fork Cuivre River bridge will be closed due to flooding.
* Impact: At 23.2 feet...Gravens Road begins flooding north of Hwy C.
* Impact:  At 23.1 feet...Water begins covering Frenchman Bluff Road
  (County Road 658) just west of the Cuivre River bridge.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Considerable agricultural land is flooded
  between Troy and Moscow Mills.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Right bank overflows.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Left bank overflows. Minor flooding begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/03  10/04  10/05  10/06  10/07

Cuivre River
  Troy            21.0   19.25      25.4   17.1    7.1    5.6    5.2


&&


LAT...LON 3901 9100 3903 9095 3895 9089 3893 9090




$$

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
444 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014


...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a
flood warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Blackwater River at Valley City affecting Johnson and Pettis
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC101-159-030944-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0144.141002T1842Z-141004T1815Z/
/VLYM7.1.ER.141002T1842Z.141003T0600Z.141003T1815Z.NO/
444 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Blackwater River at Valley City.
* from this afternoon to Saturday afternoon.
* At  4:00 AM Thursday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 24.2 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Woodlands and farm fields along the river begin to
  flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Valley City     22   15.4   Thu 04 AM   24.2 early Friday morning

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9342 3882 9361 3882 9368 3891 9361 3899 9348



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Moniteau Creek near Fayette affecting Howard County.

  Petite Saline Creek near Boonville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Kansas...

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.
  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.
  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte
  Counties.
  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC053-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0142.141002T1809Z-141004T1234Z/
/OTTM7.2.ER.141002T1809Z.141003T0000Z.141003T1234Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Lamine River near Otterville.
* from this afternoon to Saturday morning.
* At  1:15 AM Thursday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 18.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below
  flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 18.0 feet...Some gravel roads upstream and downstream from
  Otterville are under water. In addition State Highway 135 may be
  overtopped by flood waters 2 miles north of Clifton City.
* At 15.0 feet...Low lying woodlands and fields along the river
  flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Lamine River
  Otterville      15    5.2   Thu 01 AM   18.6 this evening

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9303 3887 9305 3894 9304 3894 9298 3869 9294



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Moniteau Creek near Fayette affecting Howard County.

  Petite Saline Creek near Boonville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Kansas...

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.
  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.
  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte
  Counties.
  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC053-195-030644-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0141.141004T0949Z-141005T2315Z/
/BLVM7.1.ER.141004T0949Z.141004T1800Z.141004T2315Z.NO/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River near Blue Lick.
* from late Friday night to Sunday evening.
* At 12:45 AM Thursday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue
  to rise to near 24.7 feet by early Saturday afternoon. The river
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* At 24.0 feet...Cropland and pastures along the river flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Blue Lick       24    8.3   Thu 01 AM   24.7 early Saturday
afternoon

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9342 3899 9348 3903 9297 3894 9295 3893 9323



$$

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Missouri River at St Joseph affecting Doniphan...Andrew and Buchanan
  Counties.

  Moniteau Creek near Fayette affecting Howard County.

  Petite Saline Creek near Boonville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...Kansas...

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.
  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.
  Missouri River at Atchison affecting Atchison...Buchanan and Platte
  Counties.
  Missouri River at Leavenworth affecting Leavenworth and Platte
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC053-030643-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0143.000000T0000Z-141004T2209Z/
/BONM7.1.ER.141002T1242Z.141003T0600Z.141003T2209Z.UU/
144 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Petite Saline Creek near Boonville.
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 12:30 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to
  rise to near 19.4 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 19.5 feet...The creek floods U Highway about 4 miles southeast
  of Boonville.
* At 16.0 feet...Low lying woodlands and fields near the creek flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Petite Saline Creek
  Boonville       16   14.3   Thu 12 AM   19.4 early Friday morning

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9280 3894 9264 3892 9250 3888 9252 3887 9279



$$


Severe Thunderstorm Watch


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC003-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-045-049-059-061-073-
079-085-087-111-113-115-117-125-127-131-139-143-149-161-169-173-
177-191-197-201-205-207-022000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0515.141002T1300Z-141002T2000Z/

KS
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             BROWN               BUTLER
CHASE                CHAUTAUQUA          CLAY
CLOUD                COFFEY              COWLEY
DICKINSON            DOUGLAS             ELK
FRANKLIN             GEARY               GREENWOOD
HARVEY               JACKSON             JEFFERSON
LYON                 MARION              MARSHALL
MCPHERSON            MONTGOMERY          MORRIS
NEMAHA               OSAGE               OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE         RILEY               SALINE
SEDGWICK             SHAWNEE             SUMNER
WABAUNSEE            WASHINGTON          WILSON
WOODSON
$$


Flash Flood Watch


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...

.A FEW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...ARE IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A PREVIOUSLY SATURATED
GROUND AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

KSZ057-060-MOZ033-040-043>046-053-054-030000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-141003T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIAMI-LINN KS-RANDOLPH-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-
HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...MOBERLY...
FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN...RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...
PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA...BOONVILLE...BUTLER...
RICH HILL...CLINTON
557 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...LINN KS AND MIAMI.
  IN MISSOURI...BATES...CASS...COOPER...HENRY...HOWARD...JOHNSON
  MO...PETTIS AND RANDOLPH.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
  TODAY. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY EXCEED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS
  WHICH MAY CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SIGNIFICANT
  PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL STREAMS MAY
  RISE ABOVE THEIR BANKS AND CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
  INCLUDING ROADWAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

$$

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ILZ058>060-095>099-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-059-
060-030000-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-141003T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-
MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-
COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-LINCOLN MO-
GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...QUINCY...HANNIBAL...
BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY
548 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...IN ILLINOIS...ADAMS IL...BROWN IL...CALHOUN IL...
  GREENE IL...JERSEY IL...MACOUPIN IL...MONTGOMERY IL AND PIKE
  IL. IN MISSOURI...AUDRAIN MO...BOONE MO...CALLAWAY MO...COLE
  MO...GASCONADE MO...KNOX MO...LEWIS MO...LINCOLN MO...MARION
  MO...MONITEAU MO...MONROE MO...MONTGOMERY MO...OSAGE MO...
  PIKE MO...RALLS MO...SHELBY MO AND WARREN MO.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME IN WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
  AND INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WITH
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ON
  SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER
  STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STAY INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION
IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

TILLY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT TODAY. ALONG WITH RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED EARLIER
WEDNESDAY EVENING...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BY TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM TWO TO LOCALLY FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089-022030-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-141003T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD
318 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BOURBON...CHEROKEE
  AND CRAWFORD. IN MISSOURI...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...
  CEDAR...DADE...DALLAS...HICKORY...JASPER...LACLEDE...MARIES...
  MILLER...MORGAN...PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...ST. CLAIR AND
  VERNON.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD
  WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
  RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL
  STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

* FLASH FLOODING RISKS ARE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH TODAY. FLOODING IN THIS
  REGION TYPICALLY CONSISTS OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS FLOODING
  LOW LYING AREAS...INCLUDING LOW WATER CROSSING AND ACTUAL
  ROADWAYS.

ANYONE THAT HAS INTERESTS WITHIN THE OSAGE...LITTLE OSAGE...
SAC...MARMATON...POMME DE TERRE...AND NIANGUA RIVER BASINS...
SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

GRIFFIN


Flood Advisory


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
802 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOC053-089-175-021700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FA.Y.0046.141002T1302Z-141002T1700Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-RANDOLPH MO-
802 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  RANDOLPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 759 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
  RADAR ESTIMATED AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
  THE ADVISORY AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
  OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
  INCLUDE...BOONVILLE...FAYETTE...GLASGOW...HUNTSVILLE...MOBERLY...
  ARMSTRONG...CAIRO...CLARK...HIGBEE AND NEW FRANKLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 9231 3924 9232 3924 9243 3900 9256
      3894 9253 3885 9305 3897 9305 3908 9291
      3912 9295 3920 9286 3934 9279 3932 9271
      3961 9270 3961 9230

$$

32

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
711 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOC019-135-021500-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FA.Y.0044.141002T1211Z-141002T1500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOONE MO-MONITEAU MO-
711 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 709 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TAKING AIM ON CENTRAL MISSOURI.
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEPOSIT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
  2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE 2 TO 4 INCHES THAT OCCURRED
  OVERNIGHT.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
  OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
  INCLUDE...ASHLAND...CALIFORNIA...CENTRALIA...COLUMBIA...TIPTON...
  CLARKSBURG...EASLEY...HALLSVILLE...HIGH POINT...JAMESTOWN...
  MCGIRK...MIDWAY...MURRY...ROCHEPORT AND STURGEON.

HINKSON CREEK IN COLUMBIA IS AT BANKFULL OR STARTING TO FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS
STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3869 9261 3891 9251 3899 9257
      3925 9243 3924 9211 3907 9211 3906 9213
      3890 9217 3881 9214 3871 9222 3864 9222
      3868 9235 3872 9234 3874 9239 3843 9249
      3843 9263 3860 9284

$$

CVKING

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOC053-159-021800-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FA.Y.0045.141002T1200Z-141002T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOPER MO-PETTIS MO-
700 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 700 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. DOPPLER
  RADAR ESTIMATED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND AN
  ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
  OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
  INCLUDE...SEDALIA...BUNCETON...GREEN RIDGE...LA MONTE...
  OTTERVILLE...PILOT GROVE AND SMITHTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9262 3869 9305 3856 9306 3850 9348
      3851 9351 3876 9350 3897 9255 3893 9250

$$

LAFLIN

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOC015-141-021400-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FA.Y.0044.141002T1046Z-141002T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
546 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* AT 542 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  HEAVY RAINFALL OVER OR MOVING INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL
  RATES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS ON TOP OF
  THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.
  LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...BRANDON...COLE CAMP...
  CROCKERVILLE...FLORENCE...IONIA...LINCOLN...MORA...PALO PINTO AND
  SYRACUSE. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
  ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLOODING.

THIS ADVISORY INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE BB AT GABRIEL CREEK NEAR FLORENCE...
ROUTE B AT WILLIAMS CREEK SOUTHEAST OF COLE CAMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3860 9283 3850 9272 3836 9352
      3849 9352 3852 9351 3851 9330 3854 9329
      3854 9308 3868 9307 3870 9305

$$

DSA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSC021-037-MOC011-097-021400-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FA.Y.0043.141002T1024Z-141002T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
524 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  WESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  WESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* AT 518 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
  AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING.
  ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO THE
  AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.
  LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...
  ARCADIA...ARMA...CARL JUNCTION...CARONA...CARTERVILLE...CHEROKEE...
  COLUMBUS...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...ENGLEVALE...FRONTENAC...GALENA...
  GIRARD...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...LIBERAL...MCCUNE...MINDENMINES...
  MULBERRY...ORONOGO...PITTSBURG...PRAIRIE STATE PARK...PURCELL...
  SCAMMON...VERDELLA...WALNUT...WEBB CITY...WEIR AND WEST MINERAL.
  CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLOODING.

POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND URBANIZED AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE CAN
ANTICIPATE BRIEF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 9436 3705 9437 3706 9461 3704 9462
      3703 9508 3765 9509

$$

DSA

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
301 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ILC013-061-083-117-135-MOC113-021400-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FA.Y.0043.141002T0801Z-141002T1400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-LINCOLN MO-
301 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
  JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
  LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 300 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CONTINUED TO OCCUR
  OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE ADVISED
  AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
  OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
  INCLUDE...CARLINVILLE...ELSBERRY...JERSEYVILLE...TROY...
  CARROLLTON...DAVIS...FARMERSVILLE...GIRARD...GREENFIELD...HARDIN...
  KEMPER...MOSCOW MILLS...OLD KANE...PALMYRA...RAYMOND...SHIPMAN...
  WHITE OAK AND WINFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS
STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 8949 3900 9051 3889 9109 3912 9111
      3953 8967 3953 8961 3951 8953 3936 8953
      3935 8940

$$

CVKING


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031215-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
708 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. AS A
RESULT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
530 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...HOWEVER SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE FLINT HILLS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND THEN SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A
LINE. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

$$

JMR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
517 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL PEAKS BY THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EAST OF AN OKEMAH TO BARTLESVILLE LINE.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY EARLY
IN THE STORM LIFE CYCLES. IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS CAN GET GOING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WITH THE FRONT...THEN A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO EXISTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPIN UP
TORNADOES WITH ANY MATURE SQUALL LINE THAT GETS GOING.

MORNING STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...POSING A LIMITED HAIL
RISK. THE MUCH GREATER THREAT WILL BE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN A
BAND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ON A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR AND THEN SWEEP EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
BY EARLY EVENING.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES POSSIBLE LOCALLY BEFORE ALL
IS SAID AND DONE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

LACY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
453 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
453 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER...WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
ARKANSAS. HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF
TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE OVER TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE VERY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON MAY BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ARE IN THE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

$$

226

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-030930-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
428 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW STORMS
 COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
 OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON KS TO LAMONI IA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
 WINDS ARE BOTH POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP...AND AN
 ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
 FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
406 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...PLEASE
REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

$$

TILLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
  AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
  THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.

  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND
  THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP A LONG THE FRONT...WITH
  A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
  HOURS. A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND WILL RACE EAST. LARGE
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 65
  MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
  INTENSE STORMS.

  WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
  EVENING...THERE IS A CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
  30S. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR PATCHY FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
  INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN VALLEYS AND PROTECTED
  AREAS. ANYONE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS WILL NEED TO PAY
  ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR AREAS WEST OF
  HIGHWAY 65 AND THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)


$$

GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF...LOW END SEVERE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST KENTUCKY
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. OTHERWISE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA
INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN READY IN CASE ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC013-037-083-030125-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
825 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...South Grand River near Urich

This hydrologic outlook is based on the forecast rainfall for the
next 24 hours and estimated runoff from earlier rainfall. Crests may
vary if actual rainfall or runoff is greater or less than
anticipated.

Location: South Grand River at Urich
Flood stage: 24.0 feet
Latest stage: 6.0 feet at 8 PM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 26.8 feet Friday Oct 03
At 28.0 feet...K Highway is under water approximately 1 mile south of
Urich. Many other roads along the river are flooded as well.

Later statements...possibly warnings...may be issued as additional
information becomes available.

$$

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC033-041-047-095-107-177-195-030114-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
814 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...Missouri River near Sibley...Napoleon...Waverly...Miami

This hydrologic outlook is based on the forecast rainfall for the
next 24 hours and estimated runoff from earlier rainfall. Crests may
vary if actual rainfall or runoff is greater or less than
anticipated.

Location: Missouri River at Sibley
Flood stage: 22.0 feet
Latest stage: 14.2 feet at 7 PM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 22.7 feet Saturday Oct 04
At 22.0 feet...Low-lying rural areas along the river and outside of
levee protection flood.

Location: Missouri River at Napoleon
Flood stage: 17.0 feet
Latest stage: 11.5 feet at 8 PM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 20.2 feet Saturday Oct 04


Location: Missouri River at Waverly
Flood stage: 20.0 feet
Latest stage: 14.6 feet at 7 PM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 22.7 feet Saturday Oct 04
At 23.5 feet...Rural areas along the river which are not protected by
levees flood.

Location: Missouri River At Miami
Flood stage: 18.0 feet
Latest stage: not available
Forecast crest: 21.4 feet Sunday Oct 05


Later statements...possibly warnings...may be issued as additional
information becomes available.

$$


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021400-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
735 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.NOW...

AT 7:34 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS. NEW DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 30 MPH.

THROUGH 9:00 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM DURANT OKLAHOMA TO BENTONVILLE ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WHERE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED ONE
INCH. AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS WILL VARY
FROM AROUND ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE COMMON. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS MORNING REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE