Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...
Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
Counties
Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties
Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
Union Counties
River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.
Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in
&&
ARC011-013-139-061733-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.150226T2312Z.150311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 80.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 79.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 83.8 feet by
Tuesday evening.
* Impacts at 80.0 feet...Levee gates should be closed to prevent the
river from backing into Calion Lake. Access to oil and gas rigs and
to timber is flooded. There is wide coverage of flooding in the river
bottoms.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 7 AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Ouachita River
Thatcher L 79 80.7 Thu 06 PM 81.3 82.1 82.7 83.2 83.6
&&
LAT...LON 3311 9223 3323 9236 3329 9261 3338 9247
3333 9226 3322 9212
$$
224
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...
Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
Counties
Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties
Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
Union Counties
River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.
Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in
&&
ARC019-059-061733-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0011.150306T1800Z-150308T0000Z/
/AKDA4.1.ER.150306T1800Z.150306T1800Z.150306T1800Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning
continues for
The Ouachita River At Arkadelphia.
* from Friday afternoon to Saturday evening...Or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 5:00 PM Thursday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
early Friday afternoon.
* Impacts at 17.0 feet...Farmland along the river begins to flood. Water over
State Highway 7 and 51 at railroad underpass.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 7 AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Ouachita River
Arkadelphi 17 15.4 Thu 05 PM 16.6 15.1 10.7 7.9 5.9
&&
LAT...LON 3363 9289 3396 9301 3410 9314 3416 9302
3402 9288 3367 9275
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...From the National Weather Service in Little Rock...the Flood
Warning continues for the following river in Arkansas...
Ouachita River At Arkadelphia affecting Clark and Hot Spring
Counties
Ouachita River At Camden affecting Calhoun and Ouachita Counties
Ouachita River At Thatcher L&D affecting Bradley...Calhoun and
Union Counties
River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall
forecasted to occur over the next 12 hours. During periods of
flooding...Evening forecasts are reissued with updated rainfall
forecasts.
Observed and forecasted stage data plots are available on ourAdvanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service web page at...
www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk
Under the Current Conditions section...Select River and Lakes AHPS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Remember to Turn Around...Don`t Drown
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Everyone with property or other interest along streams and rivers
should remain alert to changing weather forecast. Should conditions
change...Look for river forecast or Flood Warnings for use in
&&
ARC013-103-061733-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FL.W.0012.150306T0321Z-000000T0000Z/
/CAMA4.1.ER.150306T0321Z.150309T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Ouachita River At Camden.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:30 PM Thursday the stage was 25.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage overnight and continue to rise
to near 31.0 feet by Monday early afternoon.
* Impacts at 30.0 feet...State Highway 7 north of Camden floods, with
detours nearby. Portions of Sandy Beach Park will flood. Some county
roads north and east of Camden begin to flood.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 7 AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Ouachita River
Camden 26 25.6 Thu 05 PM 27.0 28.8 30.2 30.9 31.0
&&
LAT...LON 3329 9261 3344 9280 3363 9289 3367 9275
3350 9264 3338 9247
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
LAC015-119-070145-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0029.150309T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBBL1.1.ER.150309T1400Z.150311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
745 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Bodcau Bayou At Bayou Bodcau Lake.
* from Monday morning until further notice...or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 600 PM Thursday the pool stage was 170.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 172 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Monday morning and
continue to rise to near 174.5 by March 14. Additional rises
remain quite possible thereafter in this continued wet pattern.
* Impact...Expect bankfull conditions to develop and continue
on Red Chute Bayou through at least the third week of March.
&&
LAT...LON 3282 9351 3289 9344 3272 9346 3270 9351 3277 9351
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County
South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall
Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.
&&
TXC231-061344-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150306T1800Z/
/GNVT2.1.ER.150305T0003Z.150305T1130Z.150306T0600Z.NO/
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville.
* At 0545 PM Thursday the stage was 13.92 feet.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
after midnight.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by
Friday after midnight and crest near 14 feet by Friday after
midnight. the river should fall below flood stage by Friday after
midnight.
* At 14 feet Minor out of bank flooding will occur along the river
reach.
&&
LAT...LON 3317 9619 3303 9607 3309 9595 3319 9605
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
Cowleech Fork Sabine River At Greenville Affecting Hunt County
South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan Affecting Hunt and Rockwall
Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts.
&&
TXC231-397-061344-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150306T1811Z/
/QLAT2.1.ER.150305T0030Z.150305T1130Z.150306T0611Z.NO/
744 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The South Fork Sabine River Near Quinlan.
* At 0545 PM Thursday the stage was 15.54 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede and
fall below flood stage by Friday after midnight.
* At 15 feet Minor out of bank flooding will occur.
&&
LAT...LON 3287 9634 3283 9620 3293 9615 3297 9627
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
742 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC067-315-070142-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/JEFT2.1.ER.150305T0815Z.150308T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
742 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Black Cypress Bayou At Jefferson Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 600 PM Thursday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by
Sunday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...Lowland flooding will affect mainly timber
resources.
&&
LAT...LON 3297 9448 3275 9425 3275 9433 3278 9440 3289 9450
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC159-343-449-070141-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0032.150307T0600Z-150311T0600Z/
/WOCT2.1.ER.150307T0600Z.150308T1100Z.150310T1200Z.NO/
741 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...The flood warning extended until late Tuesday night...The flood
warning continues for
the White Oak Creek Near Talco Texas.
* from late Friday night to late Tuesday night...or until the warning
is cancelled.
* At 615 PM Thursday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and
continue to rise to near 16.5 feet by Sunday morning. The creek
will fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Expect minor lowland flooding of creek
bottoms. Ranchers that may have cattle and equipment in the creek
bottoms should move them to higher ground.
&&
LAT...LON 3328 9531 3336 9506 3328 9466 3324 9465 3326 9513
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC159-343-387-449-070140-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-150308T0627Z/
/TLCT2.1.ER.150305T0439Z.150305T2145Z.150307T1227Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Sulphur River Below Talco Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 615 PM Thursday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
Saturday morning. Also the Sulphur River will crest very near
23.2 feet during the remainder of this Thursday evening through early
Friday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of lowland areas
with some secondary roadways closed. All cattle and equipment
nearby the river should be moved to higher ground.
&&
LAT...LON 3338 9530 3341 9488 3331 9466 3326 9466 3331 9478
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC037-067-343-070140-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NAPT2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150309T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
740 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Sulphur River Near Naples Texas.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 710 AM Thursday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by
Monday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding of the boat ramp.
&&
LAT...LON 3331 9466 3328 9456 3330 9447 3324 9462 3326 9466
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
LAC013-015-119-070134-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0030.150309T1100Z-150311T0600Z/
/MNEL1.1.ER.150309T1100Z.150309T1100Z.150310T1200Z.NO/
734 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Bayou Dorcheat At Dixie Inn Louisiana.
* from Monday morning to late Tuesday night...or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 600 PM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou is expected to rise to near flood stage by
Monday morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Expect minor lowland flooding with the boat
ramp suffering overflow.
&&
LAT...LON 3282 9332 3253 9331 3253 9336 3259 9335 3282 9338
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
ARC027-LAC119-070134-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SPHL1.1.ER.150224T0400Z.150308T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
734 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Bayou Dorcheat Near Springhill Louisiana.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 600 PM Thursday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast...The bayou will continue rising to near 14.0 feet by
Sunday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...at 13.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding of boat ramps. Move
livestock to higher ground.
&&
LAT...LON 3317 9339 3300 9335 3282 9332 3282 9338 3300 9343
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
LAC079-061530-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLML1.1.ER.150303T1045Z.150307T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Calcasieu River Near Glenmora.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5:45 PM Thursday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.0 feet by
tomorrow evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 12.0 feet...When the river is rising and
the gauge reading is forecast to reach 12 feet or higher. Roads
upstream from Glenmora, including Strothers Crossing Road near the
community of Calcasieu and Price Crossing Road near Hineston have
water on them and are subject to being closed. Also, flooding of
forested areas near the river will occur.
&&
LAT...LON 3113 9279 3090 9269 3090 9262 3105 9265 3115 9275
$$
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC423-499-070130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FL.W.0033.150306T0202Z-150308T2100Z/
/MLAT2.1.ER.150306T0202Z.150307T0000Z.150308T0300Z.NO/
730 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
the Sabine River Near Mineola Texas.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* AT 615 PM Thursday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage late this Thursday evening and
continue to rise to near 15.1 feet by Friday evening. The river
will recede below flood stage by late Saturday evening.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3278 9574 3263 9535 3257 9535 3259 9550 3273 9574
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
623 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi..
Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties
Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties
Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don`t
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 12 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC049-149-070623-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BOVM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.150306T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
623 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Black River Near Bovina
* until further notice.
* At 6:15 PM Thursday the stage was 31.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 32.0 feet by
tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet...Several access roads along and near the
river are under water.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Crest Time Date
Lower Big Black River
Bovina 28 31.7 Thu 06 PM 32.0 31.0 30.3 32.0 06 AM 03/06
&&
LAT...LON 3217 9093 3224 9078 3256 9064 3245 9052
3218 9065 3204 9102
$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1007 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
TXC183-061607-
/O.CON.KSHV.FL.W.0031.150306T0000Z-150307T1200Z/
/KLGT2.1.ER.150306T0000Z.150306T0000Z.150306T0000Z.NO/
1007 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015
The flood warning continues for
the Rabbit Creek At Kilgore.
* from this evening to Saturday morning...or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 7:10 AM Thursday THE stage WAS 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage this
evening.
* Impact...at 10.0 feet...Expect lowland flooding of timber resources
in and near the creek. Some oil field operations may be affected.
&&
LAT...LON 3233 9499 3242 9489 3245 9479 3242 9478 3230 9498
$$
Hard Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...VERY COLD AIR MASS TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA...
.SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
LAZ027>029-TXZ180-259-260-061500-
/O.CON.KLCH.HZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150306T1500Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-TYLER-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON
531 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING...
* TEMPERATURE...AROUND 25 DEGREES.
* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND POSE
A RISK TO ANIMALS AND PLUMBING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES OR LOWER
ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS
AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION...POSE A HEALTH RISK TO PETS...AND
MAY CAUSE EXPOSED PLUMBING TO FREEZE. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS...AND PIPES.
&&
$$
Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
.TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ON
SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING IN THIS AREA.
LAZ034>037-039-071-MSZ068>071-077-061500-
/O.CON.KLIX.FZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150306T1500Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...AMITE...KENTWOOD...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE
402 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...
* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED.
* DURATION...THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE SAME AREA COULD
SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN DAMAGE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND ARE DANGEROUS FOR OUTDOOR PETS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
512 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061600-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTHEIMER...AMITY...ARKADELPHIA...
ARKANSAS CITY...ASH FLAT...AUGUSTA...AVILLA...BATESVILLE...
BAUXITE...BEARDEN...BEE BRANCH...BEEBE...BENTON...BISMARCK...
BONNERDALE...BOONEVILLE...BRINKLEY...BRYANT...BULL SHOALS...
CABOT...CALICO ROCK...CAMDEN...CAVE CITY...CENTER RIDGE...
CHIDESTER...CLARENDON...CLARKSVILLE...CLINTON...CONWAY...
COTTON PLANT...DANVILLE...DARDANELLE...DE VALLS BLUFF...DE WITT...
DEER...DES ARC...DONALDSON...DRASCO...DUMAS...EL PASO...ENGLAND...
FAIRFIELD BAY...FLIPPIN...FORDYCE...FOURCHE JUNCTION...
GASSVILLE...GEORGETOWN...GILLETT...GLENWOOD...GOULD...GRADY...
GRAVELLY...GREENBRIER...GREERS FERRY...GURDON...HAMPTON...HARDY...
HARRISON...HASKELL...HAZEN...HEBER SPRINGS...HECTOR...HERMITAGE...
HORSESHOE BEND...HOT SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...HOUSTON...
HUMNOKE...HUMPHREY...JACKSONVILLE...JASPER...JESSIEVILLE...
KINGSLAND...LACEY...LEAD HILL...LEOLA...LESLIE...LITTLE ROCK...
LONOKE...MALVERN...MAMMOTH SPRING...MARSHALL...MAUMELLE...
MAYFLOWER...MCCRORY...MCGEHEE...MELBOURNE...MENA...MONTICELLO...
MORO BAY...MORRILTON...MOUNT IDA...MOUNT MAGAZINE...
MOUNTAIN HOME...MOUNTAIN VIEW...MURFREESBORO...NEWPORT...
NORFORK...NORMAN...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...OIL TROUGH...OKOLONA...
OLA...OMAHA...OXFORD...OZONE...PARIS...PARON...PELSOR...
PERRYVILLE...PINE BLUFF...PINE RIDGE...PLEASANT PLAINS...POYEN...
PRATTSVILLE...REDFIELD...RISON...ROHWER...ROSE BUD...
RUSSELLVILLE...SALEM...SEARCY...SHERIDAN...SHERWOOD...STAR CITY...
STEPHENS...STUTTGART...SUMMIT...SWIFTON...THORNTON...TUCKERMAN...
VILONIA...VIOLA...WALDRON...WARREN...WESTERN GROVE...WICKES...
WRIGHTSVILLE...Y CITY...YELLVILLE
512 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...ICY ROADS THIS MORNING...
AFTER ALL OF THE SNOW AND SLEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE SUN CAME OUT THURSDAY AND THE MERCURY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THAT LED TO MELTING AND ROADS BECAME WET.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED AFTER THE SUN WENT DOWN...WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE NORTHEAST. WATER ON ROADS TURNED TO ICE.
MANY ROADS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE A THIN LAYER OF ICE...OR AT LEAST
PATCHES OF ICE. IT IS NOT RESTRICTED TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
ICE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE WHILE DRIVING...AND WILL MAKE THE
PAVEMENT LOOK WET. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THAT WET APPEARANCE IS
ACTUALLY ICE IN MANY CASES.
THIS COLD WEATHER IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MARCH. TEMPERATURES ARE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DAILY RECORDS
AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY WITH FULL
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN.
ICY ROADS WILL BECOME WET LATER THIS MORNING...AND TRAVEL WILL
NOT BE AS HAZARDOUS. EVEN SO...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
FOR THOSE HEADED OUT THIS MORNING...PLEASE BE CAREFUL. IF
MOTORISTS NOTICE PAVEMENT THAT LOOKS WET...ASSUME IT IS ICE
AND SLOW DOWN. ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION
SAFELY.
$$
46
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-062200-
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-
PRENTISS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-BENTON TN-LAUDERDALE-
TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
RECTOR...WALNUT RIDGE...HOXIE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...TRUMANN...
MARKED TREE...HARRISBURG...LEPANTO...BLYTHEVILLE...OSCEOLA...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...FORREST CITY...MARIANNA...
WEST HELENA...HELENA...KENNETT...MALDEN...SOUTHAVEN...
OLIVE BRANCH...HORN LAKE...HOLLY SPRINGS...ASHLAND...
HICKORY FLAT...RIPLEY...CORINTH...IUKA...BELMONT...BURNSVILLE...
NORTH TUNICA...TUNICA...SENATOBIA...COLDWATER...BOONEVILLE...
CLARKSDALE...LAMBERT...MARKS...CROWDER...SLEDGE...BATESVILLE...
SARDIS...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...PONTOTOC...TUPELO...FULTON...
MANTACHIE...CHARLESTON...TUTWILER...WEBB...WATER VALLEY...
COFFEEVILLE...BRUCE...CALHOUN CITY...VARDAMAN...DERMA...HOUSTON...
OKOLONA...AMORY...ABERDEEN...NETTLETON...TIPTONVILLE...RIDGELY...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...TRENTON...DYER...MCKENZIE...HUNTINGDON...BRUCETON...
CAMDEN...HALLS...COVINGTON...MUNFORD...ATOKA...BROWNSVILLE...
ALAMO...BELLS...MAURY CITY...FRIENDSHIP...JACKSON...HENDERSON...
LEXINGTON...PARSONS...DECATURVILLE...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND...GALLAWAY...
BOLIVAR...WHITEVILLE...SELMER...ADAMSVILLE...SAVANNAH
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
...TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT FELL ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. ICE AND SNOW PACKED ROADWAYS WILL PERSIST TODAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW
COVER OCCURRED. BLACK ICE WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM.
FULL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL HELP IN THE
MELTING OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST MELTING TODAY
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 40 DEGREES AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.
REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES
DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
$$
JCL
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
609 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-070015-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
609 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE REISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THIS AREA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT NOON FOR BRETON AND
CHANDELEUR SOUNDS AS WELL AS THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.
THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIBERTY LINE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY AND GENERATE GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL DURING THE TIME PERIOD. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS. WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND ALSO TRY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER THESE TOTALS STEADILY CLIMB OVER A LONGER DURATION OF
TIME (LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD IMPACT) OR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTER DURATION HEAVIER EVENT (HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STREET
FLOODING).
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 30 AND 40
PERCENT. THAT WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE DANGER
THREAT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
071200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LIGHT FREEZE IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
MANY ROADS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THIS MORNING...AS ANY MELTING THAT
OCCURRED THURSDAY REFROZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ALL AREAS WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED BY MOTORISTS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF BLACK ICE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
$$
58
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
352 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORREST CITY ARKANSAS TO HERNANDO
MISSISSIPPI TO SELMER TENNESSEE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
$$
JCL
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-049-05
1-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-1
47-149-070600-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM DARDANELLE DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...AND ELEVEN POINT
RIVERS.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...
RAINFALL - PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS FOR ARKANSAS
HAVE BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. WIDESPREAD AREAS IN
NORTHWESTERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. ONLY IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE DO 90-DAY TOTALS APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE AVERAGE.
SNOWPACK - SNOWPACK ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONS
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC) INDICATE A LIGHT TO MEDIUM
SNOWPACK IN ARKANSAS. DENSEST SNOWPACK RESIDES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WHITE RIVER BASIN. ALTHOUGH THIS
SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY PROLONG MINOR FLOODING TO THIS AREA IN THE
SHORT TERM IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT WITH
REGARD TO SPRING FLOODING.
SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS ARE GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL...WITH ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILE.
WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...MELTING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY. IF HEAVY RAIN WAS TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...RUNOFF WOULD BE ELEVATED.
RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - STREAMFLOWS WERE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THIS WINTER UNTIL THIS LAST HEAVY RAIN/SNOW EVENT WHICH TEMPORARILY
BROUGHT STREAMFLOWS UP INTO THE 76TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS EARLY
SPRING WINTER EVENT BROUGHT MINOR FLOODING TO THE
BLACK...WHITE...CACHE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO
MID MARCH. CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS IN ARKANSAS ARE AT LEVELS
APPROXIMATING DESIGN CONDITIONS WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
WHITE RIVER BASIN...
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT HAS LED TO MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN
THE BLACK AND WHITE RIVER BASINS. OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL BUT WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 WEEKS ON THE BLACK...LOWER WHITE RIVER
AND CACHE RIVERS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
IS GIVEN BELOW.
2/18 3/4
BULL SHOALS RES. AR 100% 100%
NORFORK RES. AR 100% 100%
GREERS FERRY RES. AR 100% 100%
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE ARKANSAS
RIVER MAY FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS
TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OF THE AREA.
CORPS OF ENGINEERS PROJECTS ARE AT LEVELS APPROXIMATING DESIGN
CONDITIONS. THEY HAVE APPROXIMATELY 99 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD
CONTROL CAPACITY AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER ARE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRIBUTARIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON ACCOUNT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 25000 CFS WHICH IS 33% OF NORMAL COMPARED TO
THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS SEASONAL OUTLOOK (MAR-APR-MAY) CALLS
FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL...BELOW-NORMAL...AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-MEDIAN...BELOW-MEDIAN...AND NEAR-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF FEBRUARY 24TH 2015 INDICATES
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) CONDITIONS BUT CALLS FOR NO INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.
OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...
STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS. SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DUE TO RECENT SNOW AND
RAINFALL MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST AND/OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER OUACHITA. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF
MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
OUACHITA RIVER CAMDEN AR 282%
OUACHITA RIVER MONROE LA 143%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA BASIN. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
LAKE OUACHITA AR 100%
DEGRAY RES. AR 100%
LAKE GREESON AR 100%
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES SLIGHT CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ARKANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.
THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS REGION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER ARKANSAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CONCLUSION...
THROUGH MID MARCH MINOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST AS THE SNOWPACKS
ACROSS THE STATE MELTS. THE SATURATED SOILS FROM THE LINGERING
SNOWMELT WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RUNOFF WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP STREAMFLOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
SPRING.
BY APRIL/MAY...EXPECT THE NORMAL PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL OCCURRING
PERIODICALLY IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING...ANY LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN
CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY TIME. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE
RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.
THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.
FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.
$$
61
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
061845-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
INTRODUCTION...
THIS IS THE 2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS ISSUANCE
OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS
POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT COULD INDUCE FLOODING.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE EXPERIENCED GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO TO NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE WATER YEAR SO FAR
(SINCE OCTOBER 1 2014) WITH RAIN TOTALS RUNNING BETWEEN 50 AND 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR
NORMAL.
ACCORDING TO THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...CURRENT 28 DAY
AVERAGE STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS WITH FLOWS AVERAGING 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RECENT
RAINFALLS IN THE PAST WEEK HAVE CREATED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SHORT TERM STREAM FLOWS.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ABNORMALLY DRY ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA.
RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
...NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS. BASED ON EXISTING SOIL
MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD
BE REMEMBERED THAT FLOODING IN THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS RESULTS
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND THESE
OCCURRENCES CAN NOT BE PREDICTED WELL IN ADVANCE.
...CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU AND VERMILION RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...
DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL OVER
THE CALCASIEU AND MERMENTAU BASINS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NORMAL. SEASONAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST. OBSERVED DAILY
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
CALCASIEU RIVER GLENMORA LA 111%
CALCASIEU RIVER KINDER LA 97%
MERMENTAU RIVER MERMENTAU LA 193%
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS.
...LOWER RED RIVER...
STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF
FULTON ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED FROM ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. UPPER RED BASIN AND
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RED RIVER
BASIN.
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY.
...ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...
DURING THE EARLY WINTER, MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHICH HAS LED TO NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
ON THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.
AS OF MARCH 4...STREAMFLOW ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER NEAR SIMMESPORT
WAS NEAR 77% OF NORMAL.
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT...COUPLED WITH THE
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. CURRENTLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA.
CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES GREATER CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA...WHILE THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
PLEASE DIRECT QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THIS OUTLOOK TO...
JONATHAN BRAZZELL
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
OR
MONTRA LOCKWOOD
FORECASTER
AT 337.477.5285 EXT 1
REFERENCES...
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTML
US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.GIF
TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.TWDB.STATE.TX.US/APPS/DROUGHTINFO/ALLMAPVIEW.ASPX
CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_PRCP.GIF
$$
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-062300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1215 PM CST THU MARCH 5 2015
...2015 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SPRING 2015 WILL GENERALLY BE
AVERAGE...
INTRODUCTION...
THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION - OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES - COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCED FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR
SEVERAL OF THIS WINTER`S PRECIPITATION EVENTS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING AGAIN IN
MID-MARCH FOR SEVERAL AREAS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) - SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 0.5
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 0.5 TO 20 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
IN KENTUCKY.
SNOW DEPTH - SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 20 INCHES WITH SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRED
RECENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED
SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THIS SNOW
SHOULD MELT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS - SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
FLOODING - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE TANGIPAHOA RIVER IN
LOUISIANA AND ALONG THE LOWER PEARL RIVER.
EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS...
DURING THE EARLY WINTER...MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS
OCCURRED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER...WHILE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OVER
THE PAST TWO WEEKS...CONDITIONS IMPROVED AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. STREAMFLOW CONDITONS ON THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE CURRENTLY AT NORMAL LEVELS.
DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON.
CURRENTLY...MINOR RISES ARE OCCURRING ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
APPROACHING VICKSBURG.
SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:
3/4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VICKSBURG MS 87%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NATCHEZ MS 96%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER RED RIVER LANDING LA 76%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BATON ROUGE LA 77%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEW ORLEANS LA 74%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER SIMMESPORT LA 77%
PEARL RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS
THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE
UPPER PEARL RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
THE LOWER PEARL BASIN IS STILL EXPERIENCING RISES FROM UPSTREAM.
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
PEARL RIVER JACKSON MS 146%
PEARL RIVER MONTICELLO MS 179%
PEARL RIVER BOGALUSA LA 135%
AMITE/COMITE/NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS...
DURING THE WINTER, DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS PRODUCED MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
AMITE RIVER DARLINGTON LA 195%
AMITE RIVER DENHAM SPRINGS LA 535%
COMITE RIVER OLIVE BRANCH LA 392%
TCHEFUNCTE RIVER FOLSOM LA 452%
TICKFAW RIVER HOLDEN LA 279%
TANGIPAHOA RIVER ROBERT LA 282%
PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER WINTER HAS LED TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.
3/4
PASCAGOULA RIVER MERRILL MS 110%
2015 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER
AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND
EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN
DOWNSTREAM OF JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI TO THE GULF COAST.
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AMITE RIVER...
COMITE RIVER...AND OTHER NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS.
AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASIN.
STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2015.
PLEASE DIRECT COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS TO:
PATRICIA BROWN
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA
(985) 645-0565 EXT. 228
$$
