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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
655 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-211215-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
655 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALLS
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER VERY ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MAINLY VERY ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NMZ501>540-211130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
521 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME LOCALLY
HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE PLENTIFUL SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WEDNESDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PLENTIFUL SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

33


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NMZ404-407-202230-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORDSBURG...REDROCK...VIRDEN...DEMING...
COLUMBUS
230 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.NOW...
AT 230 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE REDEVELOPING OVER LUNA
AND SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH GUSTY DOWN DRAFT WINDS TO 45 MPH...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING LIKELY. UP
TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS ESTIMATED IN THE LAST HOUR
OVER ROCK HOUND STATE PARK SOUTHEAST OF DEMING. ANOTHER HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER LUNA
AND NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES.

$$
TRIPOLI

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
120 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

AZZ503-504-506>514-202230-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING...NOGALES...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...MARANA...VAIL...
MAMMOTH...ORACLE...SIERRA VISTA...BENSON...WILLCOX...DOUGLAS...
CLIFTON...SAFFORD...HANNAGAN MEADOW...MOUNT GRAHAM...
CHIRICAHUA NM...BISBEE...CANELO HILLS...MADERA CANYON...
MOUNT LEMMON...SUMMERHAVEN
120 PM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL FOCUS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF TUCSON. THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...GUSTY WINDS TO 35
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

$$


FOR A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION SEE:
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON/MONSOON/GRANALYST.PHP

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NMZ501>509-202200-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CUBA...DULCE...EL MORRO...FARMINGTON...
GALLUP...GLENWOOD...GRANTS...QUEMADO
203 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN OR LESS THROUGH 4 PM...THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE GILA
WILDERNESS MAY RECEIVE MORE. OTHER AREAS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED THROUGH
4 PM INCLUDE GALLUP...CROWNPOINT...FENCE LAKE...THE VERY LARGE
ARRAY...LUNA...HORSE SPRINGS...GLENWOOD AND BEAVERHEAD.

$$

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
157 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

NMZ401>403-202200-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GILA HOT SPRINGS...BUCKHORN...
MULE CREEK...CLIFF...SILVER CITY...LAKE ROBERTS...KINGSTON...
FORT BAYARD...MIMBRES...FAYWOOD...HURLEY...GRANT COUNTY AIRPORT
157 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.NOW...
AT 156 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BETWEEN GILA AND GILA HOT
SPRINGS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN SHELLEY AND GRANITE PEAKS.
ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR...WITH GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY RAINFALL MIXED WITH HAIL.
CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL IN
THIS AREA...RAPID RUNOFF FROM AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY
SOON.

$$
TRIPOLI

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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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