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Flash Flood Watch


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526-060400-
/O.NEW.KABQ.FF.A.0008.150705T2000Z-150706T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA FE METRO AREA-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
1034 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...ESTANCIA
  VALLEY...JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MIDDLE RIO
  GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA...NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...
  NORTHWEST PLATEAU...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY...SANDIA/MANZANO
  MOUNTAINS...SANTA FE METRO AREA...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...UPPER TULAROSA
  VALLEY...WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WEST
  CENTRAL PLATEAU.

* FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WEST
  HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
  RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ALSO
  ENHANCING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THE
  GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 40 AND FROM THE MANZANO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
  WESTWARD. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME PATCHY LIGHTER RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE PAST
  MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

43


Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1119 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-061730-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
1119 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LEFTOVER CLOUDINESS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS AND
A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE HEATING PROCESS
AND THUS MAY DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD FACILITATE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THERE SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVITY UNDER
SLIGHTLY DRIER FLOW ALOFT. THEN A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING AND A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE VIA OUR SPOTTER PHONE LINE OR VIA TWITTER USING OUR
HANDLE @NWSELPASO OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

$$

FAUSETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
534 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME
HEAVY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS...AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

$$

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-060845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 /238 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WEST TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NMZ501>540-071630-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1022 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FLASH FLOODING WITH MAIN STEM RIVER RISES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL GET AN EXTRA BOOST BY A
STRONG SURFACE FRONT SURGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MANY AREAS DUE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY INDICATE WIDESPREAD AVERAGE
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS TARGETING THE POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING THAT MAY LEAD TO RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED ON
THIS OUTLOOK IN THE FORM OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES...RIVER FORECAST
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
UPDATED WHEN THE MORE ELEVATED FLOOD HAZARD PERIOD DIMINISHES.

$$

GUYER


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1238 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-052045-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-
WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-
NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GILA HOT SPRINGS...BUCKHORN...
MULE CREEK...CLIFF...SILVER CITY...LAKE ROBERTS...KINGSTON...
FORT BAYARD...MIMBRES...FAYWOOD...HURLEY...GRANT COUNTY AIRPORT...
LORDSBURG...REDROCK...VIRDEN...ANIMAS...HACHITA...
ANTELOPE WELLS...CLOVERDALE...DEMING...COLUMBUS...HILLSBORO...
WINSTON...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES...DERRY...SPACEPORT...GARFIELD...
HATCH...RADIUM SPRINGS...LAS CRUCES...VADO...SUNLAND PARK...
ALAMOGORDO...TULAROSA...WHITE SANDS MONUMENT...OROGRANDE...
WHITE SANDS RANGE HEADQUARTERS...CHAPARRAL...MESCALERO...
MOUNTAIN PARK...TIMBERON...CLOUDCROFT...SUNSPOT...APACHE SUMMIT...
MAYHILL...SACRAMENTO...PINON...CROW FLATS...DOWNTOWN...
WEST EL PASO...UPPER VALLEY...FORT BLISS...SOCORRO...
EAST AND NORTHEAST EL PASO...HUECO TANKS...LOMA LINDA...
DELL CITY...CORNUDAS...SALT FLAT...SIERRA BLANCA...FABENS...
TORNILLO...FORT HANCOCK
1238 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NOW...
AT 1230 PM MDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GILA
HOT SPRINGS AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
IN GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

$$

LANEY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

AZZ501>515-052100-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O"ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AJO...ORGAN PIPE CACTUS N.M....SELLS...
NOGALES...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...MARANA...VAIL...
PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK...MAMMOTH...ORACLE...SIERRA VISTA...
BENSON...WILLCOX...DOUGLAS...CLIFTON...SAFFORD...
HANNAGAN MEADOW...MOUNT GRAHAM...CHIRICAHUA NM...BISBEE...
CANELO HILLS...MADERA CANYON...MOUNT LEMMON...SUMMERHAVEN...
KITT PEAK
1120 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.NOW...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2
PM MST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING TO FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF PERHAPS 40 TO 45 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR. MOVEMENT
OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.

$$

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Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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