Flood Warning
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
756 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
TXC001-073-225-071356-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FL.W.0034.150306T1356Z-150308T0900Z/
/NCST2.1.ER.150306T0733Z.150306T1800Z.150307T1500Z.NO/
756 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
the Neches River Near Neches Texas.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* AT 730 AM Friday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.3 feet by this
Friday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by late
Saturday morning.
* Impact...Minor lowland flooding.
&&
LAT...LON 3205 9551 3167 9524 3166 9537 3180 9544 3188 9548
$$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-071130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIBERTY LINE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH MONDAY AND GENERATE GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL DURING THE TIME PERIOD. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS. WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT MODEL CONSISTENCY AND ALSO TRY TO DETERMINE
WHETHER THESE TOTALS STEADILY CLIMB OVER A LONGER DURATION OF
TIME (LESS OF A FLASH FLOOD IMPACT) OR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTER DURATION HEAVIER EVENT (HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STREET
FLOODING).
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-071130-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
520 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH AND A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED AT SOME POINT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
071200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LIGHT FREEZE IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN BEGINNING
ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-071200-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
452 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$
RUA
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
TXC007-025-057-131-175-249-273-283-297-311-355-391-409-469-479-
072030-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
228 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH TEXAS...
...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...NUECES
RIVER BASIN AND FRIO RIVER BASIN IS BELOW AVERAGE...
...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE GUADALUPE RIVER
BASIN...SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN AND THE COASTAL CREEKS IS ABOUT
AVERAGE...
FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING RIVERS
AND CREEKS IN THE FOLLOWING BASINS...NUECES RIVER...FRIO RIVER AND
THE RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...A NEAR AVERAGE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
FORECAST FOR THE LOWER GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER SAN
ANTONIO RIVER BASIN...AND COASTAL RIVERS AND CREEKS.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE...NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST OVER
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA AREA...COASTAL
BEND...BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
FRIO...RIO GRANDE AND NUECES RIVER BASINS NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS.
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS HAS KEPT NEAR SURFACE SOIL
MOISTURE AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. HOWEVER...DEEPER
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS.
STREAMFLOW...MOST SOUTH TEXAS RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE HAD BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS. IN FACT...NO
RIVER FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTH TEXAS SINCE JUNE 2014.
ALTHOUGH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED DURING FROM
TIME TO TIME SINCE THE FALL OF 2014...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. AS A RESULT...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS AND CREEKS HAS NOT OCCURRED. MOST
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE NUECES RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER...FRIO
RIVER...AND MISSION RIVER BASINS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL. OTHER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLIMATE REGIME...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EQUATORIAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC...BUT ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEAR EL-
NINO CONDITIONS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS. IN FACT...AN EL-NINO ADVISORY HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NOW FORECASTS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR EL-NINO CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SUMMER OF 2015. EL-NINO CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY
PRODUCE AN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND A BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
WEATHER PATTERN TO SOUTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SPRING.
RAINFALL...ACCORDING TO THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) 90 DAY RAINFALL ANALYSIS...RAINFALL HAS BEEN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
TEXAS...BUT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
OVER THE RIO GRANDE...FRIO RIVER...AND NUECES RIVER BASINS...MANY
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED NO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL
RAINFALL IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS. ALTHOUGH THE SAN ANTONIO AND
GUADALUPE RIVER BASINS HAVE FARED SLIGHTLY BETTER...MOST AREAS IN
THESE RIVER BASINS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 75 AND 90 PERCENT OF
THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE PAST 90 DAYS.
RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...POOL LEVELS AT CHOKE CANYON DAM ARE
VERY LOW...WITH A POOL CAPACITY JUST ABOVE 24 PERCENT. LAKE
CORPUS CHRISTI IS NOT AS LOW...WITH ITS PERCENT CAPACITY NEAR 46
PERCENT. COLETO CREEK IS MORE THAN 4 FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL
LEVEL...WHILE LAKE TEXANA IS AROUND 84 PERCENT CAPACITY. FARTHER
NORTH...LAKE AMISTAD IS AROUND 52 PERCENT CAPACITY...WHILE CANYON
DAM IS 77 PERCENT OF NORMAL POOL ELEVATION. THUS...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POSE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING
UPSTREAM OF THESE RESERVOIRS...THERE IS PLENTY OF STORAGE
AVAILABLE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE DAMS...MAKING RIVER FLOODING LESS
LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE RESERVOIRS. FINALLY...BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS WILL MEAN THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CAPACITY FOR RAINFALL TO
PERCOLATE DEEPER IN THE SOIL UPSTREAM OF THE RESERVOIRS (SHOULD
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR). THIS WOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THE
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THESE BASINS TO FLOOD.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) HAS THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS FOR
SOUTH TEXAS. THE MARCH 2015 RAINFALL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES FOR NEAR/ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR
THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY 2015 SHOWS A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONTHLY AND THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS
PREDICT THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPRING...CPC FORECASTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE/BELOW/NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE APRIL THROUGH JUNE
TIME FRAME.
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
SINCE RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE MID AND
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE NUECES...FRIO AND RIO GRANDE RIVER BASINS
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...NUECES RIVER BASIN AND FRIO RIVER BASIN
IS BELOW AVERAGE.
ON THE OTHER HAND...SINCE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CLOSER TO (BUT STILL
BELOW) NORMAL OVER THE LOWER GUADALUPE AND LOWER SAN ANTONIO RIVER
BASINS...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL RIVER AND CREEK LOCATIONS...AND
SINCE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE AREA FROM
MARCH THROUGH MAY...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER
GUADALUPE RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN...AND
THE COASTAL RIVERS AND CREEKS IS ABOUT AVERAGE.
&&
REFERENCES/LINKS:
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR SOUTH TEXAS...GO TO (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?CRP
FOR THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER...GO TO (LOWER CASE):
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/
RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU
CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/
LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH TEXAS:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CRP
ENSO CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...RAINFALL OUTLOOKS...AND SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$
GW
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-071945-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...
FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE WEST GULF RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
FORECASTING A BELOW AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING OVER ALL
RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HYDROLOGIC SERVICES
AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING BASINS...COLORADO
RIVER...BRAZOS RIVER...SAN MARCOS RIVER...GUADALUPE RIVER...SAN
ANTONIO RIVER...MEDINA RIVER...NUECES RIVER...FRIO RIVER AND THE
RIO GRANDE.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) IS CURRENTLY IN MODERATE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU.
SOIL MOISTURE...SOILS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY DRY TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE DRIEST SOILS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT...OR AT LEAST DRIER THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE. SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST
RAINFALL EVENTS WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. IF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME EXCESSIVE THEN A THREAT WOULD
EXIST FOR RIVER FLOODING.
STREAMFLOW...DURING MUCH OF THE FALL AND WINTER STREAMFLOWS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST BASINS. THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN HAS CONTINUED TO SEE NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. THERE WERE
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DID CAUSE SOME INCREASED
FLOWS...BUT THESE EVENTS WERE VERY LIMITED AND MOSTLY IN OR NEAR
URBAN LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND
NUECES BASINS WERE REPORTING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE
COLORADO REPORTED BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. THE SAN ANTONIO AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS WERE REPORTING NORMAL FLOWS.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...RESERVOIRS AND LAKES ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICES AREA (HSA) REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATION
LEVELS. A FEW RESERVOIRS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS AND ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SLIGHT RISES
IN THE LEVELS OVER THE FALL AND WINTER...BUT MOST REMAIN VERY LOW.
MEDINA LAKE WAS AT 3.2 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY OR 89.8
FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. LAKE TRAVIS REMAINS AT 34.2
PERCENT OF CAPACITY OR 55.2 FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL. WITH
THESE EXTREMELY LOW LAKE LEVELS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET BACK
TO THE NORMAL CONSERVATION POOL.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE FALL AND WINTER
WITH A COUPLE OF MONTHS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE AND A COUPLE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO DIMINISH SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS...BUT THE LONGER TERM IMPACTS REMAIN DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT EXTEND BACK 18-24 MONTHS.
CLIMATE REGIME...AN WEAK ENSO (EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) EL
NINO PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 2015 SPRING.
THE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN A FEW MONTHS DURING THE FALL AND WINTER ARE CHARACTERISTIC
OF AN EL NINO EVENT.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MONTHLY AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING
(MARCH/APRIL/MAY) AND INTO THE SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONGER TRENDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MAY. FOR THE SUMMER PERIOD THE
STRONGER TRENDS ARE CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST UNITED STATES
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUING OR
INTENSIFYING THROUGH MAY 31 2015 ACROSS THE AREAS CURRENTLY IN
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA).
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF DROUGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...LOW STREAM FLOWS AND THE VERY LOW LAKE
AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING DURING
2015 IS BELOW AVERAGE.
REFERENCES/LINKS;
(USE ALL LOWER CASE)
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS:
WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV/
RESERVOIR SUMMARIES:
WATERFORTEXAS.ORG/RESERVOIRS/STATEWIDE
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/
REGIONAL_MONITORING/PALMER.GIF
US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/
CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU
CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/
LOCAL WEATHER...RIVER...CLIMATE AND FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS:
SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX
$$
