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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-061700-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK 2015 FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...

SPRING IS THE TAIL END OF THE DRY SEASON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH APRIL CLIMATOLOGICALLY ONE OF THE
DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR.  STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER ALL RIVERS REMAIN WELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS PERSIST AND THIS TENDS TO PRODUCE A GREATER
RISK OF SPRING FLOODING DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
INDICATES A GOOD CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE MOST LIKELY MONTH FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR WOULD BE MARCH
AS APRIL IS TYPICALLY MUCH DRIER AS THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO LIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE OVERALL RISK FOR SPRINGTIME FLOODING IS
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER THIS IS THE END OF THE DRY SEASON
AND FLOODING DOES NOT TYPICALLY OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE A STORM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS FOR RIVER FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

SHOULD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS...
THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE TO SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH GREATER RISK OF
SUMMERTIME FLOODING AS THE RAINY SEASON KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

OGLESBY

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-
077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-
125-129-133-135-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-167-169-
171-175-187-193-195-197-199-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-
225-227-231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-271-279-
281-283-285-289-291-293-295-297-301-303-307-309-311-313-315-317-
319-062300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2015...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
PREDICTING A NEAR NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT SPRING IS CHARACTERISTICALLY AN ACTIVE PERIOD
FOR RIVER FLOODING...THIS OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA CAN EXPECT TO SEE A NEARLY-TYPICAL NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS
WITH A SIMILAR FLOOD MAGNITUDE.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME ABNORMALLY MOIST IN NORTH GEORGIA TO WET IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
DUE TO RECENT WEATHER SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. AVERAGE DAILY
STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

CLIMATE REGIME...A NEAR NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE WINTER MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING. THIS
PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STORM TRACKS THAT HAVE BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ABOUT EVERY 3
TO 5 DAYS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ABOUT
EVERY TWO WEEKS.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE AREAS WERE GENERALLY
100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 13 TO 17
INCHES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED OVER NORTH GEORGIA IN
DECEMBER AND THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY...BUT WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY AND MOST OF FEBRUARY. AS A RESULT...
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED A FEW TIMES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA IN JANUARY...AND ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN FEBRUARY.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...OVERALL POOL LEVELS OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE NEAR OR ABOVE TARGET
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A FEW ALREADY APPROACHING SUMMER
POOL LEVELS. NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW RESERVOIRS TO BE FILLED TO
SUMMER POOL CRITERIA.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES INTO A MORE
TRANSITIONAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SPRING WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA. A NEUTRAL ENSO PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING...DEVELOPING INTO EL NINO THIS SUMMER.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS AND THE
PRE-EXISTING MOIST TO WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THE OUTLOOK IS FOR A
NEAR NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

         WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA

AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGEHPC24

$$

16

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