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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1211 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-230515-
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas-Mississippi Sound-
Lake Borgne-Chandeleur Sound-Breton Sound-
Coastal Waters from Port Fourchon LA to Lower Atchafalaya River
LA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River
to Port Fourchon Louisiana out 20 NM-
Coastal Waters from Boothville LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Lower Atchafalaya
River LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to
Port Fourchon Louisiana from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal Waters from Stake Island LA to Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River from 20 to 60 nm-
Coastal waters from Pascagoula Mississippi to Stake Island
Louisiana out 20 to 60 NM-Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-
East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-St. Tammany-Iberville-
West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-Assumption-
St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-St. Charles-
Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
1211 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The next round of moderate to heavy rain is expected later today
with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight.
With the cold front now stalling across the region the risk for
flash flooding will increase. There is a Moderate Risk for
Excessive rainfall for much of the area. Showers and thunderstorms
could produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts
over already saturated grounds. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
for the area through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
again Tuesday along the stalled front. Heavy rain will still be a
major concern during this time with additional rain amounts of 1
to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for all of the area through Tuesday. Depending
on where the heaviest rain sets up, there could be river flooding
issues as well.

After Tuesday no hazardous weather is anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of severe weather or flooding to local
law enforcement or the National Weather Service.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
106 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

MSZ058-062>066-072>074-231815-
Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-
Lamar-Forrest-
106 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Thunderstorms moving across the area tonight will be capable of
producing heavy rain of 2 to 4 inches in a short amount of time.
Following recent rounds of rainfall, this heavy rain could lead to
flash flooding tonight.

A few of these thunderstorms could also become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard in
addition to the heavy rainfall.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

$$

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
106 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

LAZ024-026-MSZ052-054>057-059>061-231815-
Catahoula-Concordia-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
106 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Thunderstorms moving across the area tonight will be capable of
producing heavy rain of 2 to 4 inches in a short amount of time.
Following recent rounds of rainfall, this heavy rain could lead to
flash flooding tonight.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1144 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ110-112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-231645-
Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-
Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Camp-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1144 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms persisted
across portions of east Texas, deep east, southwest Arkansas and
northern and central Louisiana. No strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected today but some of these storms could produce locally
heavy rainfall, especially across the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam
Rayburn Country of Deep East Texas into portions of West Central
and East Central Louisiana. The precipitation activity will shift
east of the region this evening, and the moist low level
conditions could result in a brief period for the development of
patchy fog late tonight or early Tuesday morning, with
visibilities being capable of dropping to below six miles.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms will become likely once again late
tonight or Tuesday morning along and ahead of a strong cold
front. A deep trough of low pressure across the Central and
Southern Plains will provide the lift necessary for the
thunderstorm activity on Tuesday but the rain should quickly come
to an end Tuesday Night from west to east across the Four State
Region. Much cooler air will filter into the region for Wednesday
into Thursday with lows in the 40s possible across some areas
Wednesday Night. Temperatures will rebound for the end of the work
week into the upcoming weekend with rain chances back in the
forecast by late weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed through
tonight.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1045 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
1045 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Increasing coverage of rain late this afternoon and tonight,
combined with moist soils from rain this past weekend, will bring an
increased risk of flash flooding along with quick increases in
streams and small rivers.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible...mainly closer to the
coast. Damaging winds are the main threat in any severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of rain is likely Tuesday through Tuesday night,
bringing increased chances of flash flooding to the area.

Isolated strong to severe storms are again possible south of
Interstate 65, with damaging winds the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks may be needed
tonight through Tuesday night, mainly for flooding.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1045 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-231200-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Destin to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Destin to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1045 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Onshore winds will become strong tonight, mainly over unprotected
waters, increasing the hazard to small craft.

Increasing coverage of thunderstorms will bring strong winds and
building seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong onshore winds will continue into Tuesday night, then become a
strong offshore Wednesday behind a frontal passage. The increased
hazard to small craft will continue into Thursday.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Tuesday
night. These with bring strong winds and higher seas.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
426 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-230930-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
426 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Winds and seas will remain up through the day as storms develop
and move over the coastal waters... small craft should exercise
caution. Storms are expected to continue into the overnight hours
and shift off to the east offshore of south central Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Storms drawing to an end on Tuesday afternoon/ evening timeframe
with winds swinging around to the north.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
426 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
230930-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
426 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms to continue along and behind a stalled
frontal boundary draped along the upper Texas and southern
Louisiana coast. Heaviest rainfall are expected along the I-10
corridor today as the boundary drifts back to the north. One to
three inches will be possible with some locations over south
central Louisiana receiving upwards to four to six inches. The
threat for rains will continue into the evening hours but the
front will sag to the south and this should push most of the rains
back into the gulf during the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms chances ending on Tuesday as a second
stronger front pushes the moisture off to the east allowing for
drier air to filter in behind the boundary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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