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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-012100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 /207 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

...SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING NEXT WEEK...

The snowpack in the area contains between one half and two inches of
liquid.  The snow is expected to continue melting this weekend as
surface temperatures will warm above freezing.  Additional
precipitation is expected across the region tonight into Sunday with
totals of up to a half inch of new liquid. This precipitation
combined with the ongoing snowmelt will saturate the ground and
result in rises on small streams/creeks.

A second storm system is expected for Tuesday into Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is expected
for around 36 hours. Around two to three inches of rainfall is
expected with this new storm.

The combined rainfall from the two systems mentioned could trigger
widespread flooding across the region, especially in areas with
heavier snowpacks.  Given current rainfall projections, flooding on
the major rivers would likely begin Wednesday and continue for
the remainder of the week.  There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with regards to where the heavy rain axis will set up.
Though the latest forecasts suggest it will be along or slightly
south of the Ohio River.  The National Weather Service will continue
to watch these storms closely over the weekend. Residents in flood
prone areas should closely monitor water levels in the coming days
and prepare for possible flooding by midweek.

$$

MJ/CMC

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-012200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LASTING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALL IN ALL...A
COMBINED TOTAL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN...A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH THIS SNOW HOLDING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WATER
CONTENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BORDERING
VIRGINIA AND IN NEARBY PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.
THESE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS ARE THE HEADWATER REGIONS FOR
THE CUMBERLAND...KENTUCKY...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS AND THIS MELTING
SNOWPACK WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE POTENTIAL RUNOFF
INTO THESE RIVERS NEXT WEEK.

SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE
SUBSTANTIAL RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING NEXT WEEK. AS THE WATER
COLLECTS INTO THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS...SIGNIFICANT RISES AND
AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. MORE SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SEVERITY OF ANY RIVER FLOODING IS
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.

VISIT OUR INTERNET WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JKL OR LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT.

$$

ABE/GEOGERIAN

U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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