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Hazardous Weather Outlook


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
459 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
459 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015 /359 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
GUADALUPE, APACHE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.  THE FOG WILL
BE LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES, SO
A THIN LAYER OF ICE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON VEHICLES AND OTHER
RAISED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND


Hydrologic Outlook


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
OKC007-025-139-TXC011-065-087-111-117-
129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-375-381-
393-421-483-061723-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
723 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

...Spring Flood Outlook...
...Flood risk is near average for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles...

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal for
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

Soil moisture conditions...
Precipitation was below normal in the eastern panhandles and above
normal in the western panhandles from October through
February. Precipitation was near normal in the central
panhandles. Soil moisture conditions are running at near
historical lows across the panhandles due to the prolonged
drought.

River and stream conditions...
Rivers across the panhandles are running near to below normal
levels for this time of year. Reservoirs are well below
capacity.

Drought areas...
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows severe to extreme drought
conditions across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. The forecast
calls for persistent or intensifying drought conditions for the
next three months.

Long term outlook...
The precipitation outlook for March...April and May from the
Climate Prediction Center calls for equal chances or either above-
normal, below normal, or normal rain chances for the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles.

Spring flood potential...
Flash flooding and short term flooding in the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles usually occur in response to specific precipitation
events and are not usually tied to soil moisture, reservoir
storage, or other precursor factors. The three month outlook for
precipitation is near normal. Therefore, the overall spring flood
potential is near normal.

Information used to compile this flood potential outlook
was provided courtesy of the Arkansas Red Basin River
Forecast Center, Climate Prediction Center, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, and the United States Geological Survey.

For more specific web information concerning river stages and
forecasts for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, go to:

                  www.srh.noaa.gov/ama
                  www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc

$$

Goehring

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-062300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...LOW FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
...BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THE UPPER GILA RIVER BASIN...

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

...PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS HAS GENERALLY BEEN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN FAR WEST TEXAS...AND GENERALLY 70-80% OF NORMAL ACROSS
THE GILA BASIN.

...SNOWPACK...
SNOWPACK AS OF MARCH 5TH FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN RANGES
FROM 86 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN COLORADO...TO 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL
IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

DESPITE PRECIPITATION BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE GILA
BASIN...WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STEADY SNOW MELT
THROUGH THE SEASON. AS A RESULT...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES AS
OF MARCH 5TH ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE GILA
BASIN...AND JUST 23 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE MIMBRES BASIN.

...RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
ABOVE ELEPHANT BUTTE...RUNOFF AND LIMITED SNOW MELT HAVE CAUSED
RESERVOIR LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE. ELEPHANT BUTTE`S ELEVATION
WAS 4,310 FEET IN EARLY NOVEMBER...AND HAS RISEN 16 FEET TO 4,326
FEET IN EARLY MARCH. THIS IS STILL AROUND 27 FEET BELOW THE
AVERAGE MARCH ELEVATION OF 4,353 FEET (BASED ON 1920-2014 DATA) AND
81 FEET BELOW CONSERVATION POOL ELEVATION OF 4,407 FEET. STORAGE
VOLUME IS AT 333,205 ACRE-FEET WHICH IS 17 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL.

CABALLO RESERVOIR HAS ONLY RISEN 2 FEET SINCE NOVEMBER 1ST AND
IS CURRENTLY AT 4,142 FEET. THIS IS 10 FEET BELOW THE AVERAGE
MARCH ELEVATION OF 4,152 FEET (BASED ON 1940-2014 DATA)...OR 40
FEET BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL ELEVATION OF 4,182 FEET.

OUTLOOKS...

...SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF COLORADO. WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOCUSED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

...LONG TERM METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH
THROUGH MAY 2015 INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES
ABOVE...AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...THE RISK OF SPRING FLOODING IS
LOW ACROSS THE REGION. SPRING FLOODING ON THE RIO GRANDE IS NEARLY
A NON-ISSUE BELOW ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE ESPECIALLY WITH THE LAKE
ELEVATION REMAINING 26 FEET BELOW NORMAL AND 81 FEET BELOW THE DAM
SPILLWAY. RAINFALL AT A SUFFICIENT RATE AND VOLUME REQUIRED FOR
RIVER FLOODING BELOW ELEPHANT BUTTE AND CABALLO DAMS IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY IN THE SPRING MONTHS...AND IS RARE EVEN DURING THE SUMMER
MONSOON.

SNOWPACK LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO ELEVATE THE FLOOD RISK IN THE GILA
AND MIMBRES BASINS...EVEN WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE COMING MONTHS.

$$

HARDIMAN


Short Term Forecast


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

NMZ533>538-061600-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLOVIS...FORT SUMNER...PORTALES...
ROSWELL...SANTA ROSA...TUCUMCARI
545 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NOW...
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 9 AM MST...PATCHY FREEZING FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY FOG OR AT LEAST VERY LOW
CLOUDS INCLUDE ROSWELL...HAGERMAN...FORT SUMNER...BROADVIEW...HOUSE
AND SANTA ROSA. VISIBILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT TIMES TO THREE QUARTERS
OF A MILE OR LESS IN FREEZING FOG. IN LOCALES WITH LONGER LASTING
DENSE FOG A FEW THIN PATCHES OF BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 830 OR
9 AM MST. FOR ROAD CONDITIONS DIAL 5 1 1 OR VISIT N M ROADS DOT COM.

$$

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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
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